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Don:
Using a swing basis is the method our workgroup programmer has used.
dr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 1:55 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
Don,
What you explained makes pretty good sense, Thanks for showing me that
distinction.
I haven't even considered the bull or bear trend idea, never occured to me.
I am near sighted that way.
It is interesting since the other information I have if it gaps up tomorrow
is that it is highly
unlikely for it to make a high above the Wednesdays high. WHile the gap
down open has a fairly
high probability for making a lower low.
so... :) how do you define a bear trend? Do you do this on a weekly basis
or on a swing basis? I honestly don't know how to define that, since I
probably
mistakenly think that any day could be the start of a new trend. I know
Miner and
Gilmore will define the past in terms of a 10% filter or more. I even thing
Livermore
had a method something like bull and bear swings.
Thanks again.
Don Thompson
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
> Don:
>
> I think one needs to classify the gaps in the environment in which each
> occurs. That is, classifying the gap in terms of it's being in a bull or
> bear trend is of utmost importance.
>
> For example, the data I have on Spoos for bear trend gaps is as follows:
>
> Bear Mkt Gaps=184 (37.2%)
> GapUp=86 (17.4%): Retr Prev Cl=72 (83.7%) Retr Prev HiLo=51 (59.3%)
> Cls>Open=27 (31.4%) Cls>PrevCls=41 (47.7%)
>
> So a gap up in our present situation occurs only 17% of the time. It
> retraces to the previous close 84% of the time and closes higher than the
> open only 31% of the time.
>
> So trading a bear trend gap down is more likely to be profitable. The
trend
> is your friend. Determining the trend is the trick sometimes.
>
> dr
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 12:42 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
>
>
> oh,,,
> I see where you are confused... sorry ...
> I am not saying that if there is a gap up tomorrow morning that 80 percent
> of the time there will be a higher close.
> I am looking at a data base that looks at a narrowly defined set of
> parameters. If you made your data base to about
> 87 or 88 and narrowly defined what today looks like at the close you
would
> find what I find. I think I have given
> you enough information to figure it out.
>
> so we will see, If it gaps up there is a good chance it will close higher,
> why because 80% of the time with a close like today
> that is what it does.
>
>
> Don
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "'Lucky Bastard'" <hadrada@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 1:16 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
>
>
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, May 31, 2001 12:43 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Re: MKT - OEX
> >
> >
> > : Hmm,
> > : Well, I have been doing this for two and a half years and it works,
> >
> > Let's see some proof, then.
> >
> > : Turd station cant do the kind of query that I do in excell.
> >
> > Let's see some statistics then.
> >
> > : Sorry, your analysis is just too simple.
> >
> > What? How more complex can that be? You claim that if the S&P futures
gap
> up
> > on the open, it will close at a higher price 80% of the time. And if it
> > dips, it's gives you a better price to enter a trade. So, why not buy it
> on
> > the open (if it's a gap up open) and then exit at the end of the day. If
> > it's an up close, then it should be profitable. So, how is this analysis
> too
> > simple?
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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>
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>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
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>
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