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> How does it compare with conventional spectral analysis
> over the test period? If different, what accounts for the difference?
Similar DSP techniques but the twist is also summing up the total
profit. A cycle with a longer period has to have a bigger amplitude to
make it worth trading.
> Is your code different from the 'cycle detector' (a trading system)
> that came with (older?) versions of TS?
Not even close.
> Some cycle programs suggest that the cycle is constantly changing. To that
> I say, what cycle?
Yup, there is no such thing as THE cycle. There are lots of them, with
various periods, phases and amplitudes, all jumbled together.
> The system may suggest that a recent number of days is cyclical such as in
> Dennis's example, but 6 months from now what will it say?
Actually the pic was a summary from 1980 to 2000 so that particular one
probably won't change a whole lot.
> NW: So, one of the significant cycles is about 10 trading days which is
> about 1/2 the Lunar cycle?
>
> Good thing you are ignoring that one.
Who cares? <shrug> It's also how often companies write payroll checks to
their blue-collar employees. 10 is just that, 10. Why complicate things
with abstract theories that don't put any money in your pocket, like
trying to explain "the meaning of 10," unless you happen to be in the
business of selling abstract theories that don't put any money in your
pocket? :-) One thing for sure, the 20-something day cycle sucks big
time for trading.
--
Dennis
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