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It is funny that those who espouse a totally scientific approach fail to
realize that almost every time the theorist enters the market he usually goes
broke. Look at the major funds that have gone bust on derivatives. Their
tested scientific theory, standard deviations, and probabilities cost them
billions. So science is not the only answer to the markets and statistics
can be as misleading as anything else. As they say, garbage in, garbage out.
DH wrote:
> > Trading is not about perfect science.
>
> Nothing is perfect but, if more traders adopted a rigorous scientific
> attitude, there wouldn't be so many people losing money and unable to
> understand why.
>
> > Each information input should be
> > viewed as incremental and cumulative.
>
> That's where, with all due respect, we disagree. We are all constantly
> bombarded with far more information than we can use. Much of it is
> contradictory and much of it is irrelevant. The trick is to learn to
> ignore information that doesn't significantly contribute to the bottom
> line. There is a whole field of engineering called digital signal
> processing where the goal is to discard irrelevant information and only
> keep what is important. Examples include radar imaging, photo
> enhancement, removing the static from an audio recording, using seismic
> data for oil exploration, etc.
>
> How often have you seen a trader with a dozen indicators on his screen
> and he can't decide what to do? Give him one pretty good indicator and
> he will at least be able to make a decision. It may be right or it may
> be wrong but he won't sit there, paralyzed, unable to pull the trigger.
>
> IMHO, injecting mysticism into the decision-making process makes the
> picture less clear, not more clear. Trading ain't rocket science but we
> could learn a thing or three from the rocket scientists about how they
> approach problems.
>
> --
> Dennis
>
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