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FWIW, having been taught by Schwartz and his former
Group Planning colleagues at Shell, (more years ago than I care to
remember), I find it disappointing to be offered three scenarios. The
rationale used to be, if you give a guy three scenarios he'll plan
for the middle one; thus one gives him two, and expect him to plan for both.
Should anyone have a remote interest in scenario planning, I can thoroughly
recommend Kees (pron. Case) van der Heidjen's book Scenarios. The Art of
Strategic Conversation. published by Wiley. I found Kees's book more
memorable than Shwartz' Art of the Long View.
DJ
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Me
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 19, 2001 9:00
AM
Subject: [RT] Is it simply boom,
interrupted?
FYI: Good article here. I disagree and go with the
half-empty scenario.<A
href="http://www.redherring.com/index.asp?";>http://www.redherring.com/index.asp?layout=story&channel=20000002&doc_id=150019415Is
it simply boom, interrupted?To
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