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--- In realtraders@xxxx, DH <catapult@xxxx> wrote:
> > I promise I will show you the hard evidence(I am getting
> > artificial intelligence program and I need to get comfortable
with it
> > first) in less than 6 months.
>
> > HA:May be you are right, who knows, but it will be a new toy to
> > experiment and I like anyway to do the research :-)
>
> I think the Research Unit's point is that it would be better to do
the
> research first and then tell us the results, rather than telling us
what
> the results are going to be and then doing the research to back up
your
> claims.
HA: Someone who use astro(more than me) showed me the results so I
have an idea of what I will be be looking for so I just want to do my
own research and I will post the results(positive or negative)I was
promised i will get it in June.
>
> PS - statisticians will tell you that you need at least 30 samples
for a
> valid test.
HA: I am going to do the testing historically from 1885 for DJIA and
others.
More than 30 is better yet but that's a bare minimum. None
> of this "it happened 3 times and was profitable 2 of them." Also, no
> fair saying "it only works when the market is overbought or
oversold"
HA: I don't know if this will be the case, but I will present the
data and certainly will test the corrolation with and without
overbought/oversold condition and any other condition. Personally i
want to get to the bottom line, i know astro is not the answer for
everything but i see it helping me(if you think it could be placebo
effect, it may be but it work for me and that what matter to me)
> without testing the overbought/oversold condition by itself,
without the
> astro stuff, and testing the astro stuff, without the
> overbought/oversold condition. If the overbought/oversold (nothing
else)
> test does better than the astro (nothing else) test, or vice versa,
that
> will be a pretty good clue about where the winners are coming from.
HA: I agree
> I look forward to seeing the proof in 6 months.
HA: Ok but no personal attack please, I will present the data
objectively and we will be able to test using different conditions.
I am thinking of taking, for example:
Profit/Loss trades using DJIA data between 1885-now and see how
stochastic model perform then test the same data on MACD, astro,...etc
in this way I will be able to compare performace of
indicators "seperately" by comparing apples to apples and oranges to
oranges on the same data
Haytham
>
> --
> Dennis
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