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R:
I have that study squirreled away and I do put it up on my screens when
price makes a large unexpected [to me anyway] move. I find it very helpful.
I like to think of it as bodies put into motion.
Thanks for sharing a great piece of research.
Tim Morge
At 07:59 AM 5/18/01 -0500, you wrote:
>Hello Research,
>
>talking to myself i guess, anyway don't be fooled by the simplicity of
>this study. yes it uses a simple moving average, the key is the
>percentages of the bands above and below and the length of the
>lookback period. if there is some hidden mystical cyclical movement
>in the sp market it is most likely cause by option to option
>expiration.
>
>there is a train theory here - once an object is in motion you know
>the rest and if you don't you have no business trading. also note
>that the closer to option expiration the more volatile the the sp's
>become. note that because if you have any basis of trading that price
>direction driven, it will be more sensitive towards the expirey.
>
>another point i wanted to make is that by following this study you can
>gain a statical confidence in how long to expect the market to go up
>and what to expect the point move to be. i do not claim to be a guru
>predictor, yet i have never seen ANYTHING that can give you a feel for
>where the market is going and how far it will go as well as how long
>it will last as this study. at least i have never seen anything like
>this or better that was disclosed to the public for free.
>
>this practice/theory was discovered by doing massive amounts of number
>crunching, the original length and percentages were rounded up to
>where they are now. 21 days and 2.5% - i have run this study for
>many years and has always given me a fell for what is possible. once
>strength has raised it's head as we just experienced. it doesn't
>usually go away just that fast, and if it does it's certainly the
>minority as no study that is dynamic in application is 100%. however
>no one needs 100% in this business. i just wanted to express that i
>did not decide upon what these parameters were to be.
>
>
>
>--
>Best regards,
> Research mailto:research@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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