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Scot,
Thanks for running the Martian Cattle test.
Did you set up a parameter for the Cattle market being in an extreme position as
I alluded in my note? The planets work best as a catalyst, the proverbial
straw that breaks the cattle's back. Wouldn't it be a good thing, in addition
to your technical war chest which says that a market is way overbought or way
oversold, when it is likely for that market to turn? I am guessing that this
pre-condition should eliminate most of the dates you thought didn't
work.
Another neat thing about Astro points is that
they give valuable information when they "fail". When they don't correspond to a
high or low, they often correspond to a mid point in a move. Knowing that the
market is at 50% of its price move allows one to get a good projection for a
final target, just as you would with conventional TA. So, key planetary points
give one key price points, just as one has key resistance and support levels in
TA. The recurring problem with conventional TA is that you are often steering by
looking in the rear view mirror. The Astro-technical approach allows one to make
these decisions almost instantaneously and sometimes you know the key levels in
advance of the market.
Remember, the key times give you the key
prices. This is one of those rules that is so obvious, it may take some time for
its full meaning to register. I pondered on this Gann derived concept for at
least one year before the light bulb upstairs went on.
1. Market must be in an extreme position,
such as mufti-year highs or lows, or your parameters for multi-month
overbot-oversold.
2. Look for market to turn within 1-2 days of Mars
entering sign. This works for other markets especially if you use Mars entering
the sign ruled by that market. Other planets work too using the same principles.
What are those principles? I knew you would ask that question. That is enough
material for a book. You can find most of it in a basic Astrology book, i.e.
Taurus the Bull = Cattle, Leo the Lion is ruled by the Sun which glitters and is
golden = Gold, Corn, OJ. etc. etc. Special allowance should be made for
when a planet is retrograde. The computer program may show Mars Retro as
entering Taurus when it in fact is leaving Taurus because it is moving
backwards. In this case, you may want to check to see where it went Retro such
as if it went Retro in Gemini and retrograded back into Taurus this could have a
totally different effect from Mars going through Taurus in the normal Direct
(forward) mode.
Thanks,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A href="mailto:scot.billington@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=scot.billington@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Scot Billington
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, May 15, 2001 12:14
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Mars In Taurus
I 'tested' the below dates for market turns. The test
is fairly subjective, as we are missing several major parts of the
equation: what is defined as a market turn, how close to the date must
the market turn, how large a move must be produced after said market
turn? For what it is worth, here is the data I gathered on the Live
Cattle futures contract, which I believe was the basis for the original
example. I only have data from 1976 forward. The moves are
measured close to close.
Nothing- I could not make any argument for a turning
point for 5 of the 13 dates, 7/12/90, 6/14/92, 5/23/94, 5/2/96,
4/13/98.
Dead On- 4/25/81. The market closed at 7077.5
and dropped 637.5 points or 9.01% over the next 20 days. I find this to
be a large move in which nearly any entry strategy around the date would
produce a good winner.
Close to a Significant Turn- I
found two dates, 4/5/83 and 6/6/77, to be withing 11 and 7
days respectively of fairly major turns. The 6/6/77 date produced a
rally of 8.55%. (The market dropped 5.87% from the Taurus day until the
bottom.) The top 11 days after the 4/5/83 date was major.
Minor Rally- 2 of 13, 5/16/79 and 3/15/85, had minor moves
of 290 and 195 begin on the specified day.
2/20/87 had a 152.5 point drop begin on
2/23/87.
1/19/89 had a 342.5 point rally begin two days
later.
3/23/00 had a significant top 6 days later.
In my subjective opinion 4 of the 13 days produced tradable
moves within an acceptable window. I doubt one could create a set of
trading rules, even in hindsight, that would be able to trade these 13 days
profitable. Perhaps, they could be useful if one looked for a major turn
within two weeks of the date.
Please, take these very elementry results for the very
little they are worth. I did not see a significant amount of large turns
associated with these dates; however, someone else may. One can not do a
study like this without a definition of an extreme, a turn, a timeframe
etc.? If someone would care to post his definitions of those
things, then I would be glad to test them. If I used mine, the turn
would have to come on the day or the day after and would need to produce a
move of >200 points. Given those parameters, 2 of the 13 days
produced "winning" trades. Again, given other parameters or filters
perhaps those results could be greatly improved.
sb
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A href="mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Norman Winski
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, May 14, 2001 4:42
PM
Subject: [RT] Mars In Taurus
For anyone wanting to research Mars in Taurus,
hopefully, here are the dates:
The times are about 5 hours late, but I don't
think that will make much difference.
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