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please see reply near bottom
----- Original Message -----
From: "ztrader" <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, May 14, 2001 6:07 PM
Subject: Re[4]: [RT] DA MOON
> On Monday, May 14, 2001, 2:11:07 PM, Norman Winski wrote:
>
> >> On Monday, May 14, 2001, 10:59:07 AM, Norman Winski wrote:
> >>
> >> NW> Yes, Mars had a 1.7 year cycle. Does the Cattle market make an
> >> NW> extreme low everytime Mars gets to Taurus? No. But, when Cattle
> >> NW> does get to an extreme and Mars is entering Taurus, there is a
> >> NW> good track record for an important turn for Cattle prices.
> >>
> >> Is this track record expressable as a statistical result? If so, this
> >> would help bridge the system/astro understanding gap. :-)
> >>
> >> ztrader,
>
> NW> Good question and I eagerly await your results.
>
> Actually, YOU have this 'track record', not me. I can't reproduce
> something you did without knowing exactly what it was. If you tell me
> the number of times it was true, and the number of times it was false,
> along with the criteria you use to determine T/F, I can help to put
> this in stat terms.
>
> Another possibility is that this track record is not based on
> statistical thinking. Most people do NOT think statistically. I
> discovered this many years ago, when a couple of books on "Biorhythms"
> came out. Essentially, the books were a collection of hundreds of
> *carefully selected* events in the lives of famous people. The events
> were selected to show that such events happen on the day that would be
> predicted by "biorhythms". There were ZERO examples of events where
> "biorhythms" made the wrong prediction.
>
> I got interested in this and talked with many people about the book.
> Just about everyone said that the examples in the book were
> overwhelming proof that "biorhythms" worked as the book said - most
> people were totally convinced. Thousands, if not millions, of people
> started using them to predict what would happen in their lives (and
> the book author, offering a service to do this, made a LARGE amount of
> money). :-) This might remind us of some system vendors who select
> published trades carefully to get us to buy their system. :-)
>
> I collected a data base of events, NOT selected, and ran some
> statistics on a non-selected set of examples. Sure enough,
> "biorhythms" were unable to predict anything. There was a huge
> difference between what people thought/believed, and what was
> statistically valid. This really made it clear, to me, how
> non-statistical people really are in their thinking.
>
> One possibility is that astro people do not think statistically about
> the events they are looking at. A few successful examples seem to
> work, and the perhaps larger set of cases that did not work are not
> examined rigorously. This is *not* meant to be derogatory toward astro
> people, because so very few people think statistically. I am bringing
> this up to help explain the astro/systems understanding gap. What do
> you think? Could this be why there is such a gap?
>
> ztrader,
NW: Yes, I agree. Most people are not proficient in the rigors of
statistics, including me.
If you like stastistical testing, I recommend:
In the mid 70s, Thomas Reider wrote, "Astroloigcal Warnings & The Stock
Market" This book was probably the first major study which incorporated
proper statistical methods. Mr. Reider has an enineering background and
claims to know his statistical methods. In this book, he shows a correlation
with a Mars phenomena and the stock market, which he claims was stastically
signficant to the point of 1 out 10,000 chance of it being random.
Previously, I posted informatoin about a computer program that will test
and do just about anything one could dream of in terms of testing
Astrological pheneoma and the markets.
This is not my program. However, I do have an association with the
publisher. Contact me privately if intereted.
>
Cheers,
Norman
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