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> This old argument could be settled by someone posting a few examples
That is something I can argue about. A few (or even many) examples might
be very interesting but is not going settle anything!
1. Human nature is such that perceptions are strongly filtered by belief.
As smart as both Norm W. and Mark B. appear to be, I believe they are
miscalculating if they think their arguments and examples will change the
convictions of many on this list.
2. Mark's seemingly excellent formula for calculating the positions of the
planets, does not show one way or the other whether the position or motion
of these celestial bodies influences events here on earth. (Perhaps
analysis of the heat, light, and gravitational forces exerted on earth by
these celestial bodies would be a good place to start. A comparison of the
heat, light, and gravitational force from Mars at opposition vs. the heat,
light and gravitational force from a 747 flying overhead at 2000 feet might
be interesting.)
3. Correlations can be deceptive, especially if your are looking for
correlations between a large number of series. Statistically your are
likely to find strong correlations between series merely by chance. I don't
remember where I read of a trader or analyst that ran a correlation analysis
of a huge international economic data base looking for correlations to US
markets. He found that the strongest correlation to the S&P500 was the
price of butter in Uzbekistan (or some such).
4. With astrology (and some other technical analysis) if a large number of
traders act on the belief that a certain relationship exits it will
influence the result.
5. Jack Schwaeger speculated/concluded in "Market Wizards" that after
traders become very familiar with the markets they trade, they develop
intuition for market action based subconscious familiarity with market
patterns. Their fundamental or technical analysis then merely serves as
medium for their finely tuned intuition. IF (a big "IF" IMO) this is true,
then, like the placebo effect, a traders confidence in his method is very
important. If a successful trader were to try another method and get a few
bad trades his confidence in the new method would be low and his trading
would suffer, thus reinforcing his belief in his previous method. This may
explain why it will be very hard for the successful traders on this list to
change their opinion or trading based on posts here, even if those posts
contain hard evidence of success.
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