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Ira,
As I recall, Hurst does include a price prediction component.
I believe he used a half cycle centered SMA which exhibits a quarter cycle
lag. In principle, when the SMA turns up after a cycle low, the advance is
half over. The price target is twice the advance so far. When the half cycle
SMA reaches the full cycle SMA, the advance is over. The same principle
applies to declines.
Of course, Hurst recognized that actual price extremes seldom coincide
exactly with computed cycle extremes. He discussed strategies for dealing
with these variations.
In my view, Hurst's greatest contribution was price envelops. Three nested
envelopes trending in the same direction identify powerful opportunities.
However, because Hurst's work is based on a lagging calculation,
extrapolation is required to interpret current market action. Additional
extrapolation is required to forecast future price action.
A lot of folks can't cope with the inherent uncertainties associated with
the required extrapolations. Others find that, with practice, Hurst's
methods give them an excellent sense of the ebb and flow of price cycles.
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira Tunik [mailto:irat@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, April 22, 2001 9:49 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] NASDAQ Rhythm
I have found that price targets can take varying amounts of time to be
fulfilled, some times years. The cycles that are most consistent are time
cycles as shown in Hurst's books. They have no price targets, just
measurements of time from low to low. That does help in trading. Ira
chrischeatham@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
> Lenny, Sorry if I was not clear. I was not addressing at all your
> analysis -- but the general concept of minimum times for waves to be
> completed. I spent a lot of time thinking about the concept after I
> got burned last year (right after I got that book) when I did't take
> a currency trade solely because it hadn't been long enough. My hope
> was that what I learned from my blunder might be of help to others.
>
> Chris
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, rosow@xxxx wrote:
> > In a message dated 4/22/2001 9:20:07 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
> > chrischeatham@xxxx writes:
> >
> >
> > > The problem with min time retracements is the times you are
> wrong --
> > > opporunity costs. For my money, I would rather rely on Andrews,
> etc.
> > > than an arbitrary time %. Another axiom I added to this line of
> > > thinking for myself is that the strongest (or weakest as the case
> may
> > > be) markets will take the least time to complete waves. So the
> ones
> > > you want the most will be the ones you miss. Yea, sometimes you
> may
> > > get in at the end of A instead of the end of C, but that is a
> risk I
> > > would rather take, rather than missing it altogether.
> >
> > LR - Chris, where in my post did you get the opinion that if Bonds
> move up
> > strongly my analysis would completely miss the boat. I stated:
> >
> > A) That you can play the long side once you feel Wave A is in place
> i.e. some
> > type of reversal bar and simply put tighter stops on once the 50%
> retracement
> > has set in. If you are correct & the market is so strong then the
> stops
> > should not be taken out and you ride out the move.
> >
> > B) That if the current high of 107-08 is taken out then 110-14 is
> in the
> > picture for a possible target. I have no problem reversing
> positions. I don't
> > go for the home runs so this move would be satisfactory to me.
> >
> > >
> > > Also, FWIW based on the 6 mo of Griffiths/Miner performance I saw
> > > when I bought the software, they by no means have the holy grail.
> I
> > > didn't keep track precisely, but I would think they would have
> been
> > > lucky to break even or make some small $$. I have no regrets
> about
> > > buying the software -- learned some things with its Gann and
> Andrews
> > > tools that are worth many times the cost. What I saw of their
> > > execution in the newsletter was at best mediocre though.
> > >
> > > Chris
> > >
> > >
> >
> > LR - There is no Holy Grail!
> >
> > Lenny
>
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>
>
>
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