|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Greetings Charles:
As with Norm's comments, I also think that you were asking the right and valid
question. Last week, I was doing an informal training for a local bank here.
These young dealers are fresh out of their colleges.(They trade spot fx). For
the whole of the brief two hour session, without any reservation of my
methodologies, I have shown them how to go about trading the 30-minute
dollar/yen. They found my methologies too simple, plain and 'unattractive'.
They started to ask me how to use Elliott Wave, "Time Analysis" to trade the fx
markets. Later, I found out none of them have ANY exposure to patterns and
lines! On Friday, I went for a visit to some of my technical analyst
ex-colleagues, they related to me that their boss practically buy highs and sell
lows in a triangle in the dollar/yen market. How can that possibly happen, you
may ask? Simply put, this guy makes it a point that his rules over ride the
rules of the market(s). He is the God, not the market....
As with filtering of possible bad trades, I take alot of my time, Elliott Wave
aside, to discern whether the market is on impulsive or corrective mode. I used
to sculp on correctives all the time, which I don't do anymore. It just doesn't
worth it, IMHO. To me, the thorough understanding of patterns hightens the
probabilities of a successful trade. I have had come across of many
institutional traders and high net worth individual traders, the most common
shortcomings of them, I discovered, is their lack of knowlege in viewing the
market(s) with proper perspective. And proper perspective comes from the
practice of discerning patterns and lines. Regards.
Have a good one
Jeff Harteam
Hong Kong
Norman Winski wrote:
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
> To: "REAL TRADERS" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, April 14, 2001 11:56 AM
> Subject: [RT] GEN: FILTERING OUT BAD TRADES....
>
> > This may sound like a naive question but has anyone discovered
> > a method by which to filter out your bad trades? Example. After
> > analysis of one's trading, say for some reason Wednesday entries
> > are found to be unprofitable. Whenever the next Wednesday signal
> > arrives; should one's bet size be a lot lower in the future? at least
> > until the win percentage on Wednesday comes up to the level of
> > other days? I'm not sure exactly if anything useful can be derived
> > from an exhaustive post mortum of one's trading equity curve. The
> > standard answer is probably either simply 'no' in the sense that one
> > should learn to take all trades. Thoughts or comments from anyone
> > who has cracked this nut? Thanks.
> >
> > Chas,
>
> Chas, you have hit on a very importnat point. I think one major difference
> between inexeperienced traders and the old veterns is that the newbies
> concentrate on looking for reasons to trade whereas the vets concentrate on
> filtering out the losing trades or knowing when not to trade.
>
> I use a combination of time, price, volatility, and shape. I start with
> a time forecast for a turning point. I have a model that the market should
> follow in terms of how it should act via volatility and shape, and when it
> should do this. If it doesn't follow the expected pattern, I don't trade it.
> This eliminates about 75% of the potential losers. It also means I watch
> alot of potential signals come and go without trading them. This reminds me
> of one of my trading guidelines, which paraphrases the famous Woody Allen
> line, "sex is dirty.........if it's done right". My rule is "trading is
> boring.....
> if it's done right".
>
> Cheers,
>
> Norman
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|