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Ok folks, been trying to get into a mind meld with the Market
and Its Participants for the past few days and here are my findings - pl bear
with me for those who don't like the interjected humor, but there is a "message
of the market" somewhere:
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If this is a "new bull market" wherein the market put in a
reversal on higher volume last Thursday (fact) and then there was an O'Neil
Follow-Thru Day (any index has a 1%+ gain on higher volume relative to prior
day) within 4-7 days of the reversal day (which happened = fact) then surely the
following are the leading stocks with "superior" earnings growth and "low
valuations", breaking out of "sound bases" to new highs, in some cases to
lifetime highs.
True to form displayed since early 2000, if these
breakouts fail then we're set to condemn ourselves for more of the same-old
same-old premature bottom calling.
But if they don't fail, well, you heard it here first and you
may as well do what you will with it:
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In the "Large Cap Gorilla Money Attractor Easy To Get Into
& Out Of But We Only Buy Size And Never Sell As Long As Our Peer Group
Also Sinks In The Same Boat As Us" - Category, The Oscar Goes To:
CPN Calpine.
Only One Name, but then Oscars were meant to be
Special.
It just broke out at $53 from a 6 month base (prior high
on 10/1/00). You should really get a time & sales to see the orders
kick in (or see the action on a 5 min chart) once 53 printed. Lots of quarterly
reports will probably show this one as a Top 10 holding, even as its cohort
group is beginning to flounder chartwise. Avg volume is 3.5 million shares, the
14:10 et number is 5.0 million (watch this come up on "New Highs with 50%
or greater rise in Volume Thrust" screens tonight) - and the stock has an
outside bar with greater volume to boot. So a close anywhere from $54 north
would make it one for the Textbooks.
(Editor's Note: Now if only the Close were in the Bottom 10%
of the day's range, that would be SOME bar worth of trapped
longs !!)
Losing the Battle to Calpine was the Following Long Favored
Stock whose sales went up by $2 billion in the same period when We The
People drove its Market Value up by $100 billion (gulp):
EMC, which, fittingly makes a Parabolic New Low On Range
Expansion Even Though The Bottom Is - umm - Here !!!
Oh, how fickle they are, those "Storage Is Hot" managers! As
they say, with friends like that....
For those who ask why these 2 unlikely compadres are
competitors?
Well, so you know, wink-wink-nudge-nudge, in the trailing 12
month period where CPN has grown sales by $1.4 billion, We The People have
grown its market value by $10.5 billion.... so the nugde nudge part is coming
in... nudging the value growth from $10.5 billion to $100 billion.
Call it multiple expansion in response to a great fundamental
outlook, if your finance prof reads this and doesn't agree. (By the way, did you
know that we just discovered that Natural Gas can be used to generate
power? Did you also know that it is now well over 50% off its high while the
media STILL says that "rising Natural Gas prices have blah blah
blah....")
As I said, you heard it here first!
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And in the "Small Cap Names That We Have To Buy Billions
Of Shares Just To Make A Second Decimal Place On Our (now 50% down) Portfolio",
There Are A Few Con-tenders:
NYCB. This announced an acquisition and the stock
actually exploded up in a range expansion bar on 654% higher turnover.
SFD: America is finally getting scared of Mad Cow Disease and
discovering the magic of hogs & pork.
LEN: In the blazing hot housing sector, but then we know how
bubbles end. So one would tend to enjoy it, while it lasts.
But the Oscar Goes To:THQI: which is either putting in
a humongous double top at $40, or about to shoot off to $80....
Happy Hunting.....
Gitanshu
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