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I'm not following what indicator is talking
about. Unless he is using very unusual parameters for MACD, he should have
seen it cross zero a year or so ago for SPX and NDX perhaps six months
ago. I must be missing something. Maybe too much irish whiskey
;)
wd
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Stig O
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 12:41
AM
Subject: [RT] MACD
For once ir's not MY post that's
interesting <g>, read what Lhas to say (from the other
list).
Stig
<FONT face=verdana,arial,helvetica color=navy
size=-1>
<FONT face=verdana,arial,helvetica color=navy
size=-1>Interesting....Nasdaq and S&P has just broken down
downside from a FALLING Wedge an incident rarely discussed in the literature
of TA. Anyway, what we uaually see in those cases are powerful steep moves in
the direction of the break. And sometimes we don't even have a test of the
break.It looks really scary on the charts, but I don't know how to produce
pictures from my software to the list, or if it's
possible.Stig======================================A
few charts ago....I discussed the idea of the 'point of recognition',
corresponding to when the MACD crosses the zero line. That being the point
where a sustained move will usually light off, depending on whether MACd is
crossing above or below zero. And when this occurs on a monthly chart it is
usually the mother of all recognition points. In recent years this has rarely
happened on any major index to the downside, but it has now occured on the
nasdaq and the SP500 is going to be next. Many individual stocks have seen it
in the past year and their stock prices have been pummelled into dust in the
process.....but I still wondered how a major average would act. If it acted
like a stock, the downside would be relentless with almost no upside
reversals....straight down to the who knows where. Not like a crash in terms
of all the downside in one day....but spread over weeks and months. Continuous
and without a bounce. Closing every week on the lows and closing every month
out on the lows....the destroyer of wealth for the longs.You search
endlessly for indicators that predict the future with certainty....and you
still wonder and doubt if it could really happen to a broad index like the
nasdaq....but the recognition point doesn't care if it's LU or CMGI or the
nasdaq or the SP500....what is constant is the outcome after reaching the
recognition point. The nasdaq is right on schedule so far....and the SP500 is
next....very likely to go below 1000 before it's over....the bottom of the
bull run channel from 1982 is down at 930 right now. Another FF is that
eventually 9700 isn't going to work for the DJIA....the bottom of that bull
run channel from 1982 is a bit above 8000
now.LeeTo
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