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For once ir's not MY post that's
interesting <g>, read what Lhas to say (from the other
list).
Stig
<FONT color=navy face=verdana,arial,helvetica
size=-1>
<FONT color=navy face=verdana,arial,helvetica
size=-1>Interesting....Nasdaq and S&P has just broken down downside
from a FALLING Wedge an incident rarely discussed in the literature of TA.
Anyway, what we uaually see in those cases are powerful steep moves in the
direction of the break. And sometimes we don't even have a test of the
break.It looks really scary on the charts, but I don't know how to produce
pictures from my software to the list, or if it's
possible.Stig======================================A few
charts ago....I discussed the idea of the 'point of recognition', corresponding
to when the MACD crosses the zero line. That being the point where a sustained
move will usually light off, depending on whether MACd is crossing above or
below zero. And when this occurs on a monthly chart it is usually the mother of
all recognition points. In recent years this has rarely happened on any major
index to the downside, but it has now occured on the nasdaq and the SP500 is
going to be next. Many individual stocks have seen it in the past year and their
stock prices have been pummelled into dust in the process.....but I still
wondered how a major average would act. If it acted like a stock, the downside
would be relentless with almost no upside reversals....straight down to the who
knows where. Not like a crash in terms of all the downside in one day....but
spread over weeks and months. Continuous and without a bounce. Closing every
week on the lows and closing every month out on the lows....the destroyer of
wealth for the longs.You search endlessly for indicators that predict
the future with certainty....and you still wonder and doubt if it could really
happen to a broad index like the nasdaq....but the recognition point doesn't
care if it's LU or CMGI or the nasdaq or the SP500....what is constant is the
outcome after reaching the recognition point. The nasdaq is right on schedule so
far....and the SP500 is next....very likely to go below 1000 before it's
over....the bottom of the bull run channel from 1982 is down at 930 right now.
Another FF is that eventually 9700 isn't going to work for the DJIA....the
bottom of that bull run channel from 1982 is a bit above 8000
now.Lee
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