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This was from another board.
Healthy reading for bottompickers.
Break out chart for nasdaq included. this time the scale is semilog, which shows an interesting picture, not shown on ari.
It still looks like break outs to me.
I agree, we may have a bottom soon, but only back to the breakout trend line IMHO.
stig
stig
From: Gary Smith
Subject: The no fear, be happy, let's keep picking the bottom bear market.
Views: 160
Date: 3/14/01 5:04 PM
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Can't ever recall a bear market where every trader, analyst, and guru is out on a daily basis proclaiming a bottom is in. All sorts of methodologies have predicted one false bottom after another - all that is except for sentiment. While some sentiment indicators are looking better (such as the continual weekly net buying by the NYSE members) one most reliable sentiment indicator - the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of bullish and bearish newsletter writers -has been saying loud and clear the past several months that we are nowhere close to a major stock market bottom. During *every* bear market bottom since this service began in 1963, there was always more bears than bulls. There were 17 weeks of more bears than bulls during the 66 bear market, 26 weeks in 1970, 31 weeks in 1974, 33 weeks in 1982, 10 weeks in 1987, and 26 weeks in 90/91. 1994, while not officially a bear market, saw 11 consecutive months of bearishness and we had 7 weeks in the summer meltdown of 1998. Oddly enough, we haven't had more bears than bulls since late October 1998 - an absolutely amazing amount of bullishness considering the carnage in the Nasdaq. One reason is the Dow has held up well since late 1998. The recent breakdown in the Dow may finally cause some to shed their don't worry, be happy buy the dip posture. Another sentiment indicator that has been flashing red (actually getter redder week after week) has been the S&P futures traders Commitments of Traders Report. The commercials keep selling short, the small specs keeps buying. I've seen all sorts of conflicting reasons why the Commitments changed its configurations beginning in May 2000 from its historical norm of the commercials being primarily net long and the small spec primarily net short. One note though is that in most futures markets, the commercials are on the opposite side of big sustained moves as their deep pockets continually fade the big bull and bear markets. That's what has made this move in the S&P even more bearish, the commercials have been selling into the decline. Other comments on sentiment... cash levels at mutual funds are also nowhere close to past bear market bottoms. While the aforementioned NYSE member net buy/sell activity is very bullish, it is a very imprecise timing tool. For instance, in 1974, throughout the decline you had major member buying week after week. I have no idea how the *final* bottom will unfold. For all I know this bottom will be unlike any of the past. But so far, it's hard to argue with those who say we need 1) several weeks of more bears than bulls among the newsletter writers and 2) the commercials reverting to being net long and the public net short.
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