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Earl,
I would agree we are close to a "bounce point" or should be which is why I
am "looking" to see what some sort of analysis might "show" since the
emotions are running pretty high in this sector. I have always been told
"Buy panic and sell euphoria". The energy sector has done well (I know you
have a boatload Earl, congrats) but with money flows as they are, my concern
is chasing stocks that have already made big moves. Value has been recently
the game today but it is also possible for it to become overvalued, some say
it is too late to invest there.
The charts tell us allot certainly. Are they buying this or selling this (as
Ira mentioned). Pretty obvious what they have doing in tech which is massive
selling and energy /value stocks massive buying. Maybe it is just that
simple. I did witness what happened to energy stocks after they peaked in
the early seventies. This tech decline has many similarities when you look
at it. And you are certainly correct any sector that witnesses these
dramatic moves, frequently goes into "hibernation" for long periods of time
thereafter. Energy stocks sure did after the decline in the seventies. That
is why the "valuation question" can be helpful no matter which sector is
being considered for investment, which is why I thought it may be worth a
peak.
Thanks for the input all . . . this helps. I will share anything I feel
warrants a post to the list.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "RealTraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 9:17 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Valuation - Tech
> Before we get too enthusiastic about building a tech portfolio, let's keep
> in mind that in the larger picture, the NASDAQ is probably very close to a
> 500-900 point bear market rally to be followed by yet another leg down.
The
> bearish wave count is reinforced by the NASDAQ's total inability to
> successfully challenge the top of the channel during a 2200 point (52%)
> decline from the 01Sep01 high. Attached is an AGet weekly chart with
weekly
> wave counts and MOB's and a another set (log scale) using weekly close
only
> data which compares the current decline to the 1972 crash. One should keep
> in mind that the 1970's bubble did not begin to approach the scope of the
> current mania so this decline in the NASDAQ is likely to be more
protracted.
>
> On a more optimistic note, my NYSE and NASDAQ breadth models, which have
> been locked in sell mode for well over a month have completed the basing
> required to trigger a buy signal on the first day on which decent breadth
> returns to the market.
>
> Finally, I would suggest that one might do well to forget about bottom
> fishing techs (the Nifty Fifty of the 70's took years to recuperate) and
> look at stocks in sectors which are on the positive end of investor and
> institutional money flows (recent examples include retail, health, and
> energy). There are stocks which have been climbing all through this last
> decline. My weekend sector screens show accelerating accumulation in the
> energy, transportation, defence, and a small amount in some of the
> electronics sectors e.g Laser Systems.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 6:37 AM
> Subject: [RT] Valuation - Tech
>
>
> > Avoiding trying to figure when and where the NASDAQ will potentially
turn
> > for the moment, what is the criteria one should use to invest again in
> > technology.
> >
> > If possible let us also avoid an economic turn which understandably is a
> big
> > part of the formula as is "product", market potential and so on. It is
> > certainly not just price (XYZ has dropped below $20).
> >
> > Past earning performance, price to sales, price to book . . . . what
does
> > the "institutional" investor use to decide when to step in and "invest"
> once
> > again in this sector (or should I say carnage) assuming their investment
> > horizon extends out for 1-2 years maybe more.
> >
> > Is there anyone on the list that knows what they look at (understanding
> > there may be better areas to invest in such as energy, value companies
> etc.
> > right now).
> >
> > Bottom line when will the Intel's, Sun Micro's, Cisco's, Microsoft's,
LSI
> > Logic, ADC Telecommunications have "value"? Thoughts anyone. Does this
> > really represent a significant opportunity today for one who has so far
> > avoided this massive drop, as some are touting?
> >
> > The charts should tell us when to invest and that may be the ultimate
> > answer, but for the moment is there any "fundamental's" one could look
at
> > also.
> > don ewers
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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