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After doing a little more thinking, I arrived at this scenario.
MO could be at the top of a great big "B" wave retracing an "A" wave
extending from the high of about 59 in late 1998 to a low of 19. MO is
currently at about 50 which is a retracement of about 78 percent of the
decline. Robert Miner notes in his "Dynamic Trading" book that "B" waves
usually terminate in the 50 to 78.6 retracement zone of wave A. Mr. Miner
also notes that B waves are frequently three wave ABCs.
Looking forward, Miner notes that wave C will usually either be 62, 100 or
162 percent of the range of Wave A. Assuming MO is at the top of a "B",
these percentages give alternate targets of 25.2, 9 or -14.8. I plan to
cover at the last target.
What's wrong with this analysis? How is trading a C wave any different from
trading some five wave structure?
Thanks,
Dan
>From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: [RT] STK - MO Wave Count- Weekly
>Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2001 12:18:57 -0600
>
>Here is the weekly view and the wave 3 there is very near a 2.618
>expansion.
>As mentioned before in a post only 8% of the time is that exceeded?
>Basically the daily chart before is starting at the wave 2 starting point
>on
>the weekly. So either wave 4 in either case, be careful?? Hope this helps.
>don ewers
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Thursday, March 01, 2001 12:10 PM
>Subject: Re: [RT] STK - MO Wave Count
>
>
> > Up in a big wave 3 at this point, so I would tighten stops and watch for
>a
> > 6/4 ma channel sell signal or close below the regression line. You maybe
> > headed for a wave 4 consolidation.
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Dan Harels" <harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, March 01, 2001 11:16 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] STK - MO Wave Count
> >
> >
> > > Could someone coach me on the longer term wave count for MO. I can
>start
> > at
> > > a couple of different places and get 5 waves up. One starting point
>for
> > > Wave 1 is the low of a year ago. The other is the low of September
>00.
>I
> > > lean towards the September starting point but am not sure why. Does
> > anybody
> > > else see five waves and where would you start counting?
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > >
> > > Dan
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> >
><< MOweek022801.gif >>
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