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My preferred scenario has been for the SP500 to retreat to its long term up
turned (from 1982) at the end of the current 4 and 20 year cycles in 2002.
However, now that the index has violated both the accelerated up turned line
from 1994 and the 1998 low which marked the beginning of this four year
cycle, a less optimistic scenario must be entertained.
The long term up turned, and horizontal support drawn from 1996, appear to
converge about 1000 around Oct 2001. If this geometry describes price action
to the 2001 low, The final low of 2002 should reward bears, punish bulls,
and usher in that cherished American tradition: a divided government.
Happy hunting
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