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The only way investor/consumer confidence could return to the heights that
it was in the late stages of this bull market is if there were a new variety
of tulip bulb in high demand. Or, a new large class of investor to be taken
to the cleaners. Neither seems very likely to occur in the near future. It
was a party of excesses. This is a situation in which the CNBC crew might
as well take a vacation and quit pushing on the dead bull. He is dead meat
except for a few last gasps of air. There is no way the next few years
could create new millionares at the dotcom pace. The economic spinoffs of
that era generated the confidence, the government surpluses, the optimism of
economic utopia, and now we are back to the old slow grind. The last thing
Greenspan wants to do is get things fired up too high too fast, thus the
engine runs at idle, and then cruise, and then it outruns the highway
patrol, and then it blows a piston ring and its back to the garage for a
rebuild. We are now in that bear stage when the concern is how slow will it
get. That's bear talk. The car is stuttering and blue exhaust is coming out
the tailpipe from that blown ring. The Naz is just not going back to its
old highs unless it is by devious means and if so it just won't stay there
longer than it takes to record it on the charts and then the current bear
will seem tame compared to the aftermath of the next one when no one waits
for even a 1/3 retracement to get out. If this thing runs up on hype and
promotion you can bet its gonna come down even faster. The current Nasdaq
situation reminds me of the time I was sitting in a room of greyhaired
balding gold bugs who took an analyst's advise years before and bought gold
and mining shares when Au was 800 an ounce. Their questions were, when will
it get back there so they can sell. The dotcoms are the golds of a few
decades ago and we know what kind of bear mkt they have been in. Same thing
can happen to once cherished stocks, has happened to companies with no
growth or companies with debt outstripping revenue. Nope, just don't
believe we are going back to the climate of a few years ago. Its a time for
basing, regrouping, restoration of energy, licking of wounds in preparation
for the delivery of the next hybrid tulip bulbs.
bobr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "RealTraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 4:55 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: Long Term Nasdaq
> Had my laughing off my chair! These hacks are on CNBC all day long and
they
> just don't give up rolling out the optimistic brown stuff. Just wait until
> we get the next bear market rally in March ...they will be loading the
brown
> stuff on tractor trailers big time. Rarely do these hacks get the
> comeuppance they deserve as those who keep hanging in lose their
collective
> shirts.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 1:24 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: Long Term Nasdaq
>
>
> > The other thing is
> > that as the gurus keep dropping the estimated earnings per share, they
> will get
> > low enough that the companies will start to beat them.
>
>
>
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>
>
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>
>
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