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BobsKC
"So, we get short little spikes up which are seen as opportunities to get
out and
then those who got out are immediately looking for chances to get back
in. A trader's paradise."
>>>>>>>>
BobKC,
There is some real truth to that statement, which worries me personally,
since I have been doing (bottom picking) SUNW allot successfully but
admittedly I am not that good at doing that sort of thing (not a big stock
trader), so am I being setup for what Ira might be suggesting (flat now)?
If the pendulum swung too far up . . . . normally the opposite will occur,
down?
The real question may be, in the NASDAQ parabolic (which I think we all
agree with), will there be a wave 4 reaction up to let "the many" out
(assuming this is a big wave 3 down (forget about the wave 3 high on the
attached chart, it is a wave 5 no matter how it was labeled now)) . . . .
or will it just tank and swing too far quick, or even worse trend down over
time, the "grinders" (the old time bear markets Ira (and I) have seen) that
most investors are not use to or have ever seen, like a file, wears you down
to the bone.
Other commodities I have witnessed over a long period of trading experience
that go into parabolic's rises up (which incidentally are all labeled as big
wave 3), never see a wave 5, the same is basically true on the downside a
big wave 3 down and the wave 4 or 5 never happens . . . . we maybe talking a
bubble folks that exceeds our worse fears if that is the case . . . . I
sincerely hope not, but the possibility sure exits. Take a look at a coffee
parabolic, a corn parabolic, wheat, gold, silver . . . .etc.
Point being EW will not tell you what is happening in a parabolic generally,
nothing will.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 3:05 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: Long Term Nasdaq
> If we get to the point that the last optimist cashes in his chips, we can
> all find new professions because you can't make money in what we do
without
> liquidity and optimists. The fact is that the NAS is down 65% or so with
> some components down 80 and 90%. To suggest that the NAS has a long way
to
> go, is to suggest that zero is not an impossibility. At the rate it has
> been falling, zero would be reached within 8 months or so. (Just a glance
> estimate).
>
> I'm just trading the daily shifts at this point. I don't have an opinion
> about the next general move. I feel a huge bearishness about the market
> from those who claim to be forecasters and fear among those who are
newbies
> or part timers. On the other hand, there is a very large amount of money
> sitting on the sidelines to be put in and will *have* to be put in. So,
we
> get short little spikes up which are seen as opportunities to get out and
> then those who got out are immediately looking for chances to get back
> in. A trader's paradise.
>
> One aspect of the economy that I never see discussed it that with prices
of
> equities being hammered, these companies lose borrowing power and in turn,
> the means to buy new machinery, inventory, etc. Of course, this bleeds
> down to that firm's vendors and then to their vendors, etc. All of this
> affects employee compensation and even jobs. We are the tail and we're
> wagging the cat. (Didn't want to get another dog thread started). :))
>
> Good trading to everyone.. there is something to be happy about for the
> bulls and bears nearly every day. To heck with where the market goes.. as
> long as it goes.
>
> Bob
>
>
> At 09:14 AM 2/28/2001 -0800, you wrote:
> >It must be the wrong time to get long. Everyone is looking for a
> >bottom. This is not Biblical trading. "Seek and ye shall find" works in
> >individual stocks, but not in the indexes. I remember in the 70s when
> >all you had to do was sell $1000 worth of calls a day and walk away.
> >There was no fear, there were also no puts. Until that same attitude
> >prevails, I don't believe there will be a bottom. One needs the last
> >optimist to cash in his chips, and the last clearing firm to sell out
> >its long position from a trader that went belly up, before this thing
> >can turn. I have always been a bear at heart, for technically stocks
> >are worthless. They are worth either what they will receive at
> >liquidation or what someone else will pay you for them. The greater
> >fool theory in action. This doesn't apply to dividend paying stocks as
> >there is a return on investment. As long as there is someone out there
> >selling the perception that the only place to be is in the stock market,
> >then like tulip bulbs, the masses will clamor for stocks, and that
> >liquidity will allow we traders to make a good living. For some the
> >charts will tell, for others it will be the planets, moon and stars, and
> >for others it will be some mystical system that proclaims that all the
> >bad times are behind us. As a technician I still believe that one
> >should trade what they see and not what they believe or are told. The
> >bear market rally can be a vicious lesson for both bull and bear. Good
> >trading, Ira
> >
> >Chris Cheatham wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > Some interesting long term fib targets, etc. Notice how 23.6%
> > > retracement (red) is approx. equal to 100% expansion of wave 1 (green)
> > > which is approx. equal to blue Andrews line -- about 1775. Nice
> > > target for end of 1st leg down. Regards,Chris Cheatham
> > >
> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> > [Become a Better Trader!]
> >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
> >It must be the wrong time to get long. Everyone is looking for a
> >bottom. This is not Biblical trading. "Seek and ye shall find" works in
> >individual stocks, but not in the indexes. I remember in the 70s when
all
> >you had to do was sell $1000 worth of calls a day and walk away. There
> >was no fear, there were also no puts. Until that same attitude prevails,
I
> >don't believe there will be a bottom. One needs the last optimist to
> >cash in his chips, and the last clearing firm to sell out its long
> >position from a trader that went belly up, before this thing can turn. I
> >have always been a bear at heart, for technically stocks are
> >worthless. They are worth either what they will receive at liquidation
> >or what someone else will pay you for them. The greater fool theory in
> >action. This doesn't apply to dividend paying stocks as there is a
return
> >on investment. As long as there is someone out there selling the
> >perception that the only place to be is in the stock market, then like
> >tulip bulbs, the masses will clamor for stocks, and that liquidity will
> >allow we traders to make a good living. For some the charts will tell,
> >for others it will be the planets, moon and stars, and for others it will
> >be some mystical system that proclaims that all the bad times are behind
> >us. As a technician I still believe that one should trade what they see
> >and not what they believe or are told. The bear market rally can be a
> >vicious lesson for both bull and bear. Good trading, Ira
> >
> >Chris Cheatham wrote:
> >>
> >> Some interesting long term fib targets, etc. Notice how 23.6%
> >> retracement (red) is approx. equal to 100% expansion of wave 1 (green)
> >> which is approx. equal to blue Andrews line -- about 1775. Nice target
> >> for end of 1st leg down. Regards,Chris Cheatham
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the
> >><http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
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