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Alexander,
I don't know. I am not saying I am bearish, just not all that bullish
yet and concerned about valuations which by any standard I have used in the past
look to be still high. Nothing worked valuation-wise on the way up, so the same
may be true on the way down? In commodities all parabolic's end badly, this has
also been the case in the Nasdaq, the question becomes, how bad is bad. In
my book when stocks like Cisco, Intel & Microsoft widely held by
everyone and every mutual fund more or less, decline over 65% or more, that is
bad and a bear. The question becomes can the fed orchestrate the soft landing
desired? I wish I knew the answer. Maybe when I have to park further out or
actually wait in a checkout line I will have my buy signal, late, but hopefully
the start of a trend :-)
Ever heard of pushing on a string? That is my biggest fear, that we had or
boom and now everyone has there cars, cell phones, computers etc. and just does
not need to buy anything for a while (then comes the bust?), what is that
called, the liquidity trap as I recall authored by the big K?
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Alexander
Levitin
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2001 1:11
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: EWT thoughts
How many bear markets continue after Fed start
cut rates and did it twice in the row?
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
I agree with what you are saying, everyone is thinking where is the
bottom, they can't go lower, oversold indicators everywhere, but in a bear
that happens and does not let up until the perception occurs that the
economy has bottomed or about to bottom and therefore earnings will stop
declining.
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