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Sorry the 5/35 EW oscillator did not help .... Looking at it
for a week is hardly doing it justice one would think.
I sure one needs a full lesson on its uses and that the way it is used is
no doubt in conjunction with EW. That means a major understanding of
EW, etc, etc,
All I know, from a very short look at it, was that on an intraday basis it
lagged the market and so was only telling me what the price action had already
told me. My style of trading means making decisions, based on a strict
r/r/r, as things are actually happening. The sooner I am in, the better
the cover for my stop. To wait for the confirmation of the oscillator
would either be too late for the trade or a very bad fill, probably making the
r/r/r such as to negate the trade. The best confirmation tools that I have
are the patterns in the longer time frames - perhaps with more knowledge
of its use (six years success must be transferable?!!) it could become a
very good confirmer, but I doubt it could make a trading decision in the shorter
time frames, only because the price action is faster and more accurate.
It is human nature, if not common sense, to keep looking for an indicator
that is going to be an ace decision maker, but the reality for me is that they
are only ever confirmation tools - vital one imagines for position play - but
disappointing for me. I wish it was otherwise, as I would always
want to use the best and the only best I have is price action...
Sofaras the bonds are concerned, all I know is that if you put a minute
chart of the bonds over the spoos you will see exactly what I mean.
Over the last year or so, the spoos have led and the boos have followed;
furthermore they run opposite each other. Not a the same rate, size of bar
or with any consistency in terms of rate of climb or fall or lengths of time
going sideways. But when they get out of kilter, the get back again and
that is very helpful with day trading - until one starts following the
other....!!!!!! For several years, the spoos always led
the boos. As an example, when the boos closed, if the day had been a strong up
day and if the closing bar was a strong up bar, you could bet (not of course the
farm!) that the next few bars on the spoo would be up. You could dive from
one to the other for a good trade. Not now...!!!!!!
So my point was this. The current norm is for the spoos to lead
the boos and the run opposite to each other. But quite suddenly, for
longer periods than ever before, this has not been happening. Did anyone
have any reasons? So far it seems to be some cycle or change it,
seems to be causing it. Anyone care to elaborate on that?
As is obvious, I trade very short time frames. Small factors and good
knowledge of them can produce big results (relatively speaking). When
things suddenly change, it is not good news - or there again, could be good news
if one knew the facts. Like an indicator, confirmation is not what I
am after. I like and use leading edge tools. My powers
of prediction are useless and I do not like chucking money at position play
based on indications of what ever sort. So back to the relationship
of the boos and spoos... anyone got any more thoughts on the change?
You can tell its raining here, in England, yet again. Still it
does help getting down to the writing and this post is a little light change,
from reading the overnight mail.
Bill Eykyn
E&OE except for spellchecker... as smell of coffee rates
higher....
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