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Absolutely. CRB weekly cash has resolutely moved up a very narrow Andrews
Pitchfork channel and across a 4 year old monthly trendline. While momentum
has been declining a bit, the trend is clear and lacks the kind of parabolic
rise which would suggest anything more than a modest correction.
Also attached is a self explanatory chart showing a November peak in an
inflation gauge I track ... at some point these increases are going to be
reflected in retail prices.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ira Tunik" <ist@xxxxxx>
To: "realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, December 27, 2000 10:11 AM
Subject: [RT] nasty things
> Things could start to really get nasty if what I see happening in the
> commodity markets continues. It appears that almost everything has
> turned up. Whether these rallies can be sustained, only time will
> tell. The grains and meats are retracing, the currencies are rallying,
> and the bonds seem to have run into resistance at current levels with a
> retracement in the offing. If there is follow through with the
> currencies there will be a battle between inflation worries and economic
> slowdown. Look at the labels on anything you buy. It is almost all
> made overseas. If the dollar crashes then inflation will be rampant.
> Will Greenspan be happy with a 2% growth and level his weapons at
> inflation? The Nasdaq only has a few more points to go to reach my
> target and that would mean that the Dow would break badly if there was
> no action on the interest rate front. Everyone is counting on at least
> 25 basis point drop in the fed funds rate and maybe 50 basis points. If
> it doesn't happen then the fox is in the hen house. Just some holiday
> joy. Ira.
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Attachment:
Description: "InflationGuage.gif"
Attachment:
Description: "crbwkcash.gif"
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