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Things could start to really get nasty if what I see happening in the
commodity markets continues. It appears that almost everything has
turned up. Whether these rallies can be sustained, only time will
tell. The grains and meats are retracing, the currencies are rallying,
and the bonds seem to have run into resistance at current levels with a
retracement in the offing. If there is follow through with the
currencies there will be a battle between inflation worries and economic
slowdown. Look at the labels on anything you buy. It is almost all
made overseas. If the dollar crashes then inflation will be rampant.
Will Greenspan be happy with a 2% growth and level his weapons at
inflation? The Nasdaq only has a few more points to go to reach my
target and that would mean that the Dow would break badly if there was
no action on the interest rate front. Everyone is counting on at least
25 basis point drop in the fed funds rate and maybe 50 basis points. If
it doesn't happen then the fox is in the hen house. Just some holiday
joy. Ira.
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