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Seems to me the problem with 40 and 60 year cycles and the US stock
market is there haven't been enough of them to have any statistical
significance. Every little bit of data helps so this monthly DJ chart
goes back to 1901. I don't have any problem with the notion that we have
had a long bull run and are due for an extended sideways or down period.
But, I think it's a stretch to assume that patterns from 60 years ago or
40 years ago or whatever will repeat exactly. I just don't see it on the
chart. The main conclusion I can draw, from looking at this chart, is
that the recent volatility is nothing in the historical context. If
volatility is mean reverting, we should expect to see much more of it in
the years ahead.
--
Dennis
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