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A number of folks (including Gann) have observed 20 year cycles in the
markets. Some claim direct correlation with astro cycles.
An alternation of 20 year cycles has been observed -- a rotation of
advancing and declining (or flat) 20 year periods.
The rotation(see attachment):
1920-1940 -- overall flat trend with extreme volatility
1940-1960 -- strongly advancing trend
1960-1980 -- generally flat trend with a wide range
1980-2000 -- strongly advancing trend
2000-2020 projected -- overall flat trend with significant volatility
given the apparent alternation of 20 year cycles, the best match for the
present should be 1960, the last time a strongly advancing cycle was rolling
over.
-Stan
-----Original Message-----
From: Carl Vanhaesendonck [mailto:carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, November 30, 2000 5:13 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: re:60 yr cycle & sentiment + Pattern correlation
I must be very dense also but...do not see any pattern correlation
between the 1940-41 chart and actual DJ pattern...
This said, I can agree that actual DJIA chart, plotted in weekly
bars, shows some vague H&S pattern since early 1999. As it shows a
wonderful and dangerous Diamond Pattern, which has since then failed
on both sides. Which let us with a longe and large (9600-11900)
trading range of nearly 2 years. As we know, trading range appearing
after a long run up (or down) is rather a continuation pattern.
I would therefore rather expect DJIA to break to the upside, with a
target above 14000 pts.
And if you stick with the H&S pattern, H&S failures (price do not
cross the neck line but do the opposite and cross the last "Shoulder"
pivot) also generate strong move.
Exciting !
Carl
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, SLAWEKP@xxxx wrote:
> You right this chart represents end of 1940 & Jan 1941,
> basically You subtract 60 yrs from today's date.
> this chart Told me to be out of the market by end of march 2000,
> buy on may 16th 2000, so far showed good hi/low rotation
> & Feb 8th (+/- 4days) 2001 as a buying point after severe decline
from Jan
> 10th 2001 (presidential election gridlock???) Its confirmed by
other methods
> as very important date
>
> slawek
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Attachment:
Description: "djia_60yr.gif"
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