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Michael
Your tirade assumes that the results of the election will have an impact
on the facts and trends you indicate.
Looking away from the US for a moment, the UK provides a wonderful
example of an election having no real impact on the economy. The Labour
party has proven itself to be no better able to run the country than the
Conservatives did, and its only real success has been in keeping to the
budgetary promises the Tories made before they were voted out. Its next
best success? Taking monetary policy out of the hands of government,
ensuring the electoral process has less effect than before.
Does this mean that elections have no impact at all? No. Look at
Germany, where the left-centre SDP is having remarkable success in
pushing through improvements in the economic structure of the country(
eg, lower taxes, less restrictive labor laws). Of course, the main
obstacle to these kinds of improvements during the rein of Chancellor
Kohl and the CDU was...the SDP!
Back to the US: will this election matter? My opinion is no. Neither
candidate will be able to do much to change the status quo. Neither will
an evenly split Congress be able to grab the bit in its teeth and run
with it. I also believe this is a good thing. I believe the great
success of the economic management of the Clinton administration is in
part due to his inability to have any direct political success after the
disaster of Medicare. Basically, the government stopped changing things
for business, and business got on with its job of creating wealth. The
weakness of Bush or Gore (doesn't matter) will hopefully maintain this
state of political helplessness for at least another four years.
In summary, I don't think the result of this presidential election will
have any long term impact on the markets.
Regards
DanG
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