|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Carl asked the question, >Do you really think that the US vote issue will
decide for the market direction ? <
Here is a trading related response with a long term perspective:
Do you think that fiscal and monetary policy, (there IS a difference),
affect the financial condition of a country's businesses?
What do you suppose is responsible for Japan's economic situation? Bad
policy, bad luck?
What do you think is responsible for France's economy? And the value of
their currency?
And Germany. And the value of the DM. Or anywhere. Why was the euro a
slam-dunk short?
I am not stating that there is anything wrong with the people in those
countries. Or their currency. I am asking this question: what do their
regulations and tax laws have to do with the viability of their businesses?
Can an election have long term lasting effects on a market? Suppose
candidate X manages to get in the US presidential office and appoints to the
US supreme court the judges that are now on the FL supreme court. Can you
honestly imagine that action would have zero effect on the direction or the
strength of the markets? On the prosperity of the country? Or the rate at
which capital is formed and invested?
One of the major strengths of the US economy is the reliability of contract
law. It is the reason that US markets are considered a safe haven. But when
you have courts willy-nilly changing contract terms after the fact, as
happened in FL, then you no longer have a safe haven, and you might as will
invest in xyzLand, because you will have the same chance of getting your
money back. Twisting contract law is death to an economy. If you don't think
so, just imagine the corruption of contract law by the FL court let loose in
the Bond pit. The reason traders from around the world trade in the US is
they trust the contract laws. This is one of the deep issues of this
election, and I think it is a crucial reason why the outcome of this
election matters to all of us.
Suppose X administration came after, say, daytraders, or, investors. You
think that's not possible? Or contemplated? What if you can no longer short
futures? Or currency? Or even invest your own funds where you choose to? Or
when you choose to? Do you think this is far-fetched?
I was in one business for 28 years. During that period of time federal
agencies that did not exist when I started my business, enforcing laws and
regulations that did not exist, literally choked the profit from my business
by increasing the regulatory costs, the legal hazards, and by simultaneously
reducing my opportunities to conduct business. It is no longer financially
viable. I am money ahead by NOT OPERATING MY BUSINESS. By federal fiat. You
think an election has no effect on your future?
All of this happened during the last 8 years.
Now, what I am asking you to imagine is this:
1: For the next 8 years what happened to my business happens to more
businesses. To YOUR business, to YOUR opportunities.
OR
2: For the next 8 years businesses are relieved of anti-business government
policy.
Then ask the question again: "Do you really think that the US vote issue
will decide for the market direction? "
HOW COULD this election NOT AFFECT THE MARKETS?
Politics and economics are inextricably interwoven, and it seems short sited
to ignore this. In the short run, Ira is right, the volatility is
opportunity.
Best Regards,
-------------------------- eGroups Sponsor -------------------------~-~>
eGroups eLerts
It's Easy. It's Fun. Best of All, it's Free!
http://click.egroups.com/1/9698/0/_/152424/_/974999433/
---------------------------------------------------------------------_->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
|