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Steve, in saying Bush would increase the deficit you're saying that his tax
cut would reduce the amount of tax revenue flowing into the Federal
Treasury.
Just out of curiosity, when the capital gains tax RATE was reduced a couple
of years ago, did capital gains tax REVENUE go up or down? When Ronald
Reagan cut personal income tax RATES in the 80's, did tax REVENUE go up or
down? When Kennedy cut RATES in the 60's, did tax REVENUE go up or down?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Bruce
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steven W. Poser (psn)" <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> I would not even begin to try and determine why bonds would rally or fall
> due to a Republican or Democrat being in office. Congress is part of the
> equation as well, and I am not a student of our political history. If I
were
> a fundamental type, I'd be bearish bonds, because either Gore is going to
> move left of Clinton's centrist policies and start spending, or Bush will
> cut taxes and hugely increase the deficit. Both will increase Treasury
> issuance (increase supply, lower prices).
>
> I agree with Ira in that the market will do what it will do, and I am long
> term bearish bonds still.
>
> As for the event comment, the single event and the market may say that it
> does not have a lasting affect, however, a chart does not show what may
have
> led up to the event and whether or not the so-called event instead was the
> result of something that had already been brewing and was priced into the
> market. Then, the so-called event might show a spike and then a
continuation
> of what had previously been happening.
>
> Was that unclear enuf? It is late. It is a holiday weekend. Happy Turkey
Day
> all. And remember, next time you vote, vote for Poser for President for
> Life. Also, for Floridians, vote early, vote often and if you change your
> mind, sue.
>
> Steve
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