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I would not even begin to try and determine why bonds would rally or fall
due to a Republican or Democrat being in office. Congress is part of the
equation as well, and I am not a student of our political history. If I were
a fundamental type, I'd be bearish bonds, because either Gore is going to
move left of Clinton's centrist policies and start spending, or Bush will
cut taxes and hugely increase the deficit. Both will increase Treasury
issuance (increase supply, lower prices).
I agree with Ira in that the market will do what it will do, and I am long
term bearish bonds still.
As for the event comment, the single event and the market may say that it
does not have a lasting affect, however, a chart does not show what may have
led up to the event and whether or not the so-called event instead was the
result of something that had already been brewing and was priced into the
market. Then, the so-called event might show a spike and then a continuation
of what had previously been happening.
Was that unclear enuf? It is late. It is a holiday weekend. Happy Turkey Day
all. And remember, next time you vote, vote for Poser for President for
Life. Also, for Floridians, vote early, vote often and if you change your
mind, sue.
Steve
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira Tunik [mailto:ist@xxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, November 22, 2000 11:07 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: While the judges decide...on track
There are Dow charts that go back to the beginning. They have all the
events on them including assassinations, all the wars, the depressions, the
silver and gold standard rejections, and almost all of the other important
events in our history, and all the elections. If you go over one of these
charts you will see that my statement is correct. I was surprised when it
was first brought to my attention many years ago. Ira
Prosper wrote:
> I'm not qualified to comment on why bonds would respond to Bush and
> stocks to Gore it is just something that I read at the quote.com home
> page. Maybe Mr. Poser knows more about that I think he is our most
> experienced bonds man. I agree with Ira that mostly the election news
> will be temporary. Although I rarely disagree with Ira I am fairly
> certain that markets can be effected by politics and news on a large
> scale. For example during wars prices have been frozen and trading
> has been halted. Some countrys have had their markets closed all
> together. So some events can impact the markets long term.
>
> Prosper
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, "Ashok Garg" <agarg@xxxx> wrote:
> > Prosper,
> >
> > Thanks for your interesting correlation with the Gore ve Stocks and
> Bonds vs
> > Bush.
> >
> > I am new to the post and new to the markets as well. From your post
> Do I
> > infer that Gore victory would push Stocks up and Bonds down, and
> Gore
> > victory would push Bonds up and Stocks down. That would be a
> short / medium
> > term out look. Long term they sort of go together?
> >
> > Can you please elaborate please
> >
> > Cheers
> > Ashok
>
>
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