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I have said before that I am not a full time trader. I do trade profitably
and I do use Elliott as my main tool when I trade and for my analysis. I do
not lie. I have a good track record. I have had institutional money managers
ask me how I could make them richer next year and only market my newsletter
to institutions (as those of you who have been on this list are very well
aware of).
However, Elliott is not for everybody. I am still learning it. That Bob
Prechter is not rich using it does not mean anything. Connie Brown uses it
heavily and makes lots of money for herself and her clients.
Elliott Wave theory gives you a roadmap. It helps you explain how the market
is moving based on characteristics at certain times. It is a wholly
psychological system. In fact, it is very much based on Dow Theory.
EWave can allow you to make calls that are almost impossible to imagine. In
the chapter I wrote for the Bloomberg book, I forecast an S&P top at 1554 (I
mentioned an alternate level I think about 20 points higher). I also wrote
in Futures magazine that the NASDAQ Comp was due to get down to 2799/2566
back in March I believe. We are not there yet, but we are on our way. These
levels and general directions came solely from longer term wave counts.
I am not always right. However, that is the beauty of EWave. You can make
money when you are wrong and you almost never need to wait for your stop to
get hit. This is because if you understand the characteristics of the wave,
you know pretty quickly when your count is wrong and can get out of a bad
position with a small profit or small loss.
I would never suggest that a beginning trader use EWave at all, and
certainly not on its own. It is incredibly difficut to use especially
because it is so subjective. It leaves one open to "hoping" that the market
will come back to where you want it to go. That is death to a beginning
trader.
I definitely do not believe in the BS of making big calls for the heck of
it(though I admit I just mentioned one). This leads to the very bad habit of
top picking and bottom picking. The beauty of EWave is that it often does
work in advance and not just in the rear view mirror. But, it takes years of
living with it and understanding how a given market trades. I will tell you
that I cannot for the life of me tell what the Eurosterling market will do
based on Elliott.
The bottom line is that you should not use any system or methodology as the
holy grail, because if there is one, I do not know about it. Elliott is not
infallible, and we human analysts do not always get it right. Elliott is a
tool, and in my opinion, one of the best out there.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
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