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I've always thought that EW was based on a principle that may be
fundamentally sound: the fact that people react to significant events in 3
or 5 waves. Where EW falls down in my opinion is the thought that you can
predict the large waves (waves of the days to weeks length) by subdividing
them into smaller waves of the hours long or even minutes long scale. It
seems to me that if you start an EW count from the instant of a significant
event like an interest rate change or a panic low, the count will be good
for a period of time. But after you carry the count so far, other
market-moving events should take precedent over the fact that a new wave in
a 3 month old count has ended.
I don't doubt that some people find value in EW and even make money with it.
And I know any reasonable practioner can whip out a chart that will prove EW
works ("the plural of 'anecdotes' is not 'data'"). The ultimate answer for
me is that the Supreme Practioner is not a multi-billionaire.
Kent
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