RE: [RT] Gann Fan on the Bonds

["Steven W. Poser" <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I am 
not sure what a scientific wave count is. My specialty is EWave. EWave is just a 
tool. I think that it is one of the better tools out there, but more because it 
allows you to understand who, what, why and wherefores of the market more than 
the exact to-the-tick targets. However, there are times that the market goes 
exactly where it "should" go. That said, a five wave move should be countable 
and easily detectable. I also would disagree that a 4th wave count, or all 
corrective counts, are only identifiable after the fact. If it is uncountable, 
it is corrective, but if it is countable, it is not necessarily not a correction 
either.
<SPAN 
class=720082701-03112000> 
As for 
wave-4 and wave-1, unless you are in a diagonal triangle, technically, THERE CAN 
NEVER BE AN OVERLAP of wave-1 and wave-4. This would include wave-4 of wave-a in 
a zigzag. Of course, some Elliotticians add the caveat that for very very tiny 
timeframes, there can be overlaps, and some also say that small overlaps are 
possible in derivative products (i.e., bond futures) as long as there is no 
overlap in the underlying cash. I disagree with the latter point. As far as the 
very short timeframes, I am not convinced that tick charts are countable (as in 
1-tick charts).
<SPAN 
class=720082701-03112000> 
What 
is important above waves, and the way to identify, is by what a wave should 
characteristically act like. See the new book, "New Thinking in Technical 
Analysis: Trading Models from the Masters" from Bloomberg Press for more on that 
wave perspective. There is a great chapter on Elliott by one of my favorite 
EWavers there.
---Steven W. Poser, 
PresidentPoser Global Market Strategies Inc.<A 
href="http://www.poserglobal.com/"; target=_blank><FONT 
size=2>http://www.poserglobal.com<FONT 
size=2>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxTel: 201-995-0845Fax: 201-995-0846 

  <FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: c_r@xxxxxxxxx 
  [mailto:c_r@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, November 02, 2000 7:54 
  PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx; 
  realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Gann Fan on the 
  BondsBill,I'll probably incur the fury of 
  scientific wave counters, but IMHO wave interpretation is more art than 
  science.  Give four Elliotticians a chart and you'll have four to eight 
  interpretations ;-).  Years ago Robert Prechter used to stress the 
  importance of keeping an alternate count.  There are some fundamental 
  points -- Jeff noted that in an impulse wave w4 could not overlap w1 -- but 
  accurate intepretation of corrective patterns is only after the fact.  
  Harry Truman once said he wanted a one armed economist who couldn't say "on 
  the other hand"; much the same applies here.Charles MarchandAt 
  05:55 PM 11/2/00 +0000, t-bondtrader wrote:
  I've got other 
    points to ask, but let's get this aspect over first, as obviously the 
    science of the waves is vital and what has passed I assume must be read and 
    agreed by all.   Obviously it is the future which everyone will 
    have a different take on... Bill 
    Eykyn    To 
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