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Perhaps I should make it clear, that I have never bought or used Nature's
Pulse and my reference to it was within the context of Ed Kasanjian's post
explaining that he did not find, after months of research, any validity in
Fibonacci projections.
How good NP was as it was marketed is another matter, about which I would
not make any comment since I have no knowledge of the product. What caught
my eye was the fact that after a great deal of research he came to the
conclusion that projecting numbers does not work. On that point, from a
different standpoint, I completely agree.
The fact that he has said so is I think refreshing - certainly for those
moving forward and trying to get it right, rather than looking back at what
was wrong. Many, if not most, systems fail in the end, but how many people
admit it?
Bill Eykyn
t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx
www.t-bondtrader.com
"Learn to read the tape"
----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil" <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, October 22, 2000 3:37 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Software - Pattern Smasher
>
> Is this a joke? This can't be the same one who just a few years ago,
> sent advertising every week about how great NP was.
>
> Since he now says his software and research in NP is useless to traders
> and not worth the time to upgrade. Wonder if he will offer a refund to
all
> who bought his NP software when he was advertizing how good it was at
> finding turning points?
>
>
> At 12:23 AM 10/22/00 +0100, you wrote:
> > >During the development
> >> of the windows version of NP, I spent 6 months trying to automate the
> >> time/price projections using fibo (and other) ratios. In the process I
> >> ended up proving that there is no validity to the technique.
> >>
> >> Regarding the use of fibo ratios for making projections. I think it is
a
> >> good example of the idea that you get what you look for. The theory is
> >> convincing. After all, these numbers are found in nature and it is
> >logical
> >> to assume that they can be found in the charts as well.
> >
> >
> >I find this most interesting research and is absolutely in line with my
own
> >thinking that the only Fibonacci ratios that have a decided track record
of
> >success are those of actual retracements in the market. The distinction
of
> >what the market has actually done is one thing, projecting where it might
go
> >using the same ratios is quite another.
> >
> >When the market has made a specific retracement, it is possible to assess
> >whether the retracement is very bullish, bullish or not likely to take
out
> >the existing high (and a similar matter for when it goes down). But
> >actually projecting where it is likely to go using Fibonacci numbers is,
> >from my experience, exactly as Kasanjian Research has found out -
> >inconclusive and probably futile.
> >
> >Price action as the market moves and reacts with particular patterns at
> >points where previous price action has made its mark, is, I have proven
to
> >myself over and over again, to be a very worthwhile way of trading (the
> >bonds, anyway). Trying to project where the market is going using
numbers
> >or the mathematics incorporated in all the common place indicators I have
> >tried, has not been successful. Furthermore, so far as waves and cycles
> >are concerned, the best that I have been able to see of these techniques
is
> >the establishment of which wave or part of the cycle the market is in;
as
> >for where it is likely to go or is actually going is, again, totally
> >different and I simply cannot see how any projection made can be traded.
> >
> >Price action, patterns, support and resistance, retracements, etc, are
facts
> >within the market, based on actual buying and selling that has taken
place.
> >They are real and have happened, for whatever reason. How the market
moves
> >and reacts, within and around these parameters can (not necessarily will,
so
> >hence the need for a sound money management technique) give very strong
> >clues as to what is going to happen next. For me, that is about the
best
> >information I am going to get (bearing in mind the influence of calendar
> >times and dates) to be able to make a trading decision.
> >
> >As for the future, it never really comes... it is just the present, as
it
> >reveals itself, which may give you an edge, if you look sharp about
you...
> >
> >Consequently, I find Ed Kasanjian's candour on what his research revealed
to
> >be most refreshing indeed. Just his honesty will help a lot of people.
> >
> >Bill Eykyn
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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