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Is this a joke? This can't be the same one who just a few years ago,
sent advertising every week about how great NP was.
Since he now says his software and research in NP is useless to traders
and not worth the time to upgrade. Wonder if he will offer a refund to all
who bought his NP software when he was advertizing how good it was at
finding turning points?
At 12:23 AM 10/22/00 +0100, you wrote:
> >During the development
>> of the windows version of NP, I spent 6 months trying to automate the
>> time/price projections using fibo (and other) ratios. In the process I
>> ended up proving that there is no validity to the technique.
>>
>> Regarding the use of fibo ratios for making projections. I think it is a
>> good example of the idea that you get what you look for. The theory is
>> convincing. After all, these numbers are found in nature and it is
>logical
>> to assume that they can be found in the charts as well.
>
>
>I find this most interesting research and is absolutely in line with my own
>thinking that the only Fibonacci ratios that have a decided track record of
>success are those of actual retracements in the market. The distinction of
>what the market has actually done is one thing, projecting where it might go
>using the same ratios is quite another.
>
>When the market has made a specific retracement, it is possible to assess
>whether the retracement is very bullish, bullish or not likely to take out
>the existing high (and a similar matter for when it goes down). But
>actually projecting where it is likely to go using Fibonacci numbers is,
>from my experience, exactly as Kasanjian Research has found out -
>inconclusive and probably futile.
>
>Price action as the market moves and reacts with particular patterns at
>points where previous price action has made its mark, is, I have proven to
>myself over and over again, to be a very worthwhile way of trading (the
>bonds, anyway). Trying to project where the market is going using numbers
>or the mathematics incorporated in all the common place indicators I have
>tried, has not been successful. Furthermore, so far as waves and cycles
>are concerned, the best that I have been able to see of these techniques is
>the establishment of which wave or part of the cycle the market is in; as
>for where it is likely to go or is actually going is, again, totally
>different and I simply cannot see how any projection made can be traded.
>
>Price action, patterns, support and resistance, retracements, etc, are facts
>within the market, based on actual buying and selling that has taken place.
>They are real and have happened, for whatever reason. How the market moves
>and reacts, within and around these parameters can (not necessarily will, so
>hence the need for a sound money management technique) give very strong
>clues as to what is going to happen next. For me, that is about the best
>information I am going to get (bearing in mind the influence of calendar
>times and dates) to be able to make a trading decision.
>
>As for the future, it never really comes... it is just the present, as it
>reveals itself, which may give you an edge, if you look sharp about you...
>
>Consequently, I find Ed Kasanjian's candour on what his research revealed to
>be most refreshing indeed. Just his honesty will help a lot of people.
>
>Bill Eykyn
>
>
>
>
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
>
>
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