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A voice of reason...for a change. Nice post Steve.
Bob
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven W. Poser (PSN) <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, October 12, 2000 7:55 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Nasdaq Bottom
>I agree that we are near a bottom of some significant degree as well and we
>are due for a pretty sharp bounce. However a story on NPR that says things
>are down a bunch and have not done well all year is an indication of an
>impending turn. Timing it will be tough. I have Oct. 18 as a possible turn
>date. Now, if NPR does a story recommending to bail and buy utilities or
>bonds, that will be more interesting. I am seeing a lot of reports about
>bottom picking, and when I see that I get real nervous that we do not have
a
>bottom yet.
>
>Typical bottoming type occurrences, such as 90% of all shares down on a
day,
>or a huge percentage drop in one day, hopefully with a strong intraday
>reversal, 14-day RSIs near or below 20, momentum divergences, are just not
>present right now. It does not mean we do not have one. Two people that I
>highly respect, John Bollinger and Chris Carolan, seem to think we have
>bottomed, but if we do, it would be via a statistical anamoly.
>
>As for who will capitulate, it is usually the fund managers anticipating
>major withdrawals. They are no smarter than you or me. Heck, some of them
>buy my newsletter! It was the pros that tanked NASDAQ last year. Remember,
>at 2566, a 50% haircut from the intraday high, the comp would still be
ahead
>about 15% from its end of 1998 level and only back essentially to the Oct.
>1999 lows.
>
>---
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>http://www.poserglobal.com
>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Tel: 201-995-0845
>Fax: 201-995-0846
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Dan Harels [mailto:harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Thursday, October 12, 2000 1:28 AM
>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: RE: [RT] Nasdaq Bottom
>
>
>
>Regardless of the wave count, my NPR indicator says a bottom in the
>technology market is very close. National Public Radio did a hard hitting,
>investigative story yesterday that reported that technology stocks are down
>a whole bunch in the last few weeks and that they haven't done very well
all
>year. Although NPR is recognized for its business acumen, the media tends
>to be a lagging indicator from what I know.
>
>By the way, who is it that "capitulates" at market bottoms. I presume that
>the people who manage mutual funds for a living are at least as sharp on
>this subject as I am. Is it the public that capitulates? Is it the fund
>managers that capitulate and am I giving them too much credit for being
>sharp? Will I capitulate and am I giving myself too much credit for being
>sharp?
>
>Just curious,
>
>Dan
>
>
>>From: "Steven W. Poser \(PSN\)" <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Subject: RE: [RT] A GET NDX Comp 65
>>Date: Thu, 12 Oct 2000 00:00:12 -0400
>>
>>I can see a three wave pattern possibly complete, but five waves just does
>>not make sense to me. Then again, I have little faith in computer
generated
>>wave counts anyway. I doubt that the bottom is in -- not until 2799/2566
in
>>NAZ. Of course, I've been wrong b4!
>>
>>Steve
>>
>>---
>>Steven W. Poser, President
>>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>>http://www.poserglobal.com
>>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>Tel: 201-995-0845
>>Fax: 201-995-0846
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: SteveandAmanda [mailto:boos1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>> Sent: Thursday, October 12, 2000 12:00 AM
>> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: [RT] A GET NDX Comp 65
>>
>>
>> We seem to have precisely nailed the MOB for wave 5 down to the point
>>and
>>to the day. Tried to send an attachment but could not via Snagit.
>>
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>>
>
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