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I agree that we are near a bottom of some significant degree as well and we
are due for a pretty sharp bounce. However a story on NPR that says things
are down a bunch and have not done well all year is an indication of an
impending turn. Timing it will be tough. I have Oct. 18 as a possible turn
date. Now, if NPR does a story recommending to bail and buy utilities or
bonds, that will be more interesting. I am seeing a lot of reports about
bottom picking, and when I see that I get real nervous that we do not have a
bottom yet.
Typical bottoming type occurrences, such as 90% of all shares down on a day,
or a huge percentage drop in one day, hopefully with a strong intraday
reversal, 14-day RSIs near or below 20, momentum divergences, are just not
present right now. It does not mean we do not have one. Two people that I
highly respect, John Bollinger and Chris Carolan, seem to think we have
bottomed, but if we do, it would be via a statistical anamoly.
As for who will capitulate, it is usually the fund managers anticipating
major withdrawals. They are no smarter than you or me. Heck, some of them
buy my newsletter! It was the pros that tanked NASDAQ last year. Remember,
at 2566, a 50% haircut from the intraday high, the comp would still be ahead
about 15% from its end of 1998 level and only back essentially to the Oct.
1999 lows.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
-----Original Message-----
From: Dan Harels [mailto:harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, October 12, 2000 1:28 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Nasdaq Bottom
Regardless of the wave count, my NPR indicator says a bottom in the
technology market is very close. National Public Radio did a hard hitting,
investigative story yesterday that reported that technology stocks are down
a whole bunch in the last few weeks and that they haven't done very well all
year. Although NPR is recognized for its business acumen, the media tends
to be a lagging indicator from what I know.
By the way, who is it that "capitulates" at market bottoms. I presume that
the people who manage mutual funds for a living are at least as sharp on
this subject as I am. Is it the public that capitulates? Is it the fund
managers that capitulate and am I giving them too much credit for being
sharp? Will I capitulate and am I giving myself too much credit for being
sharp?
Just curious,
Dan
>From: "Steven W. Poser \(PSN\)" <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: RE: [RT] A GET NDX Comp 65
>Date: Thu, 12 Oct 2000 00:00:12 -0400
>
>I can see a three wave pattern possibly complete, but five waves just does
>not make sense to me. Then again, I have little faith in computer generated
>wave counts anyway. I doubt that the bottom is in -- not until 2799/2566 in
>NAZ. Of course, I've been wrong b4!
>
>Steve
>
>---
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>http://www.poserglobal.com
>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Tel: 201-995-0845
>Fax: 201-995-0846
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: SteveandAmanda [mailto:boos1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, October 12, 2000 12:00 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] A GET NDX Comp 65
>
>
> We seem to have precisely nailed the MOB for wave 5 down to the point
>and
>to the day. Tried to send an attachment but could not via Snagit.
>
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>
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