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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Woke up to a message from Prosper to say that my
attachment did not come out... so here it is... again, with
luck....!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Clearly, during the night (over here) there has
been good correspondence on the H&S and, as with all things trading, various
different interpretations and references from various books and people have been
quoted. I appreciate that from a long or longer term perspective it
is important to know what is likely or not to happen with such a pattern.
Where the neckline is drawn, the height of the shoulders, valleys, etc can be
viewed critically - especially after the event! - but need close attention
before it, to assess the situation.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A day trader looking at longer time frame patterns
is still a day trader and interested in what is likely that day or the follow
through after it. The pattern set up on the line that I drew and then
broke it - by quite a bit. Yesterday started with a big move down and then
back again and the overnight has continued on the up, so that the overall
picture is likely (not necessarily, of course!) to turn into an downthrust and a
false break. But selling the break four days ago and coming out on the
close yesterday must have been a pretty decent trade for Spoo players. The
bonds also gained much over the same period, but at a hugely different financial
level (and volatility and heart failure rate!)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For me, it is not a question of top or bottom
picking, but seeing a trading situation with a good r/r/r and going for it - on
a day trade or very short term basis. The precise reliability of the
pattern for long term purposes is not important to me. (The downthrust
from the break may, for example, turn out to be an even better trade and that
particular scenario may become clearer in a matter of hours...)
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For me today is today, and it is very nice to know
that yesterday is dictating it, so that you can get the edge...</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bill Eykyn<BR><A
href="mailto:t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR><A
href="http://www.t-bondtrader.com";>www.t-bondtrader.com</A><BR>"Learn to read
the tape"</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
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