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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Joe Duffy <<A
href="mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>joeduffy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <<A
href="mailto:bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Wednesday, September 27, 2000 6:55 AM<BR><B>Subject:
</B>rt<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff size=2>
<P><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=3>Hi Bob:</FONT></P>
<P> </P>
<P><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=3>Cannot post to Real Traders. Cud u post
for me. My comments start.....</FONT></P>
<P> </P>
<P> </P>
<P><STRONG>Steve Poser wrote:</STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>"I would not use ADX in that way at all. Note that DI- has been
above ADX almost every day since February in the Comp. The trend there has been
flat to down for the whole period. All you can say about DI- moving above ADX is
that there is risk that the current trend is extended a bit and that we need to
go sideways." </STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>…….ACTUALLY WHAT IS MORE SIGNIFICANT IS ADX FALLING
BELOW -DI as it did 2 days ago. That’s your first sign the downtrend is
weakening.</STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>=================================================="</STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>However, remember that ADX is very smoothed. Most of the increase in
ADX occurred due to the rally in August/September". </STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>……If your talking 14 period ADX this statement is not
correct. ADX rose on Tuesday’s large drop, where the low was significantly
below the previous days low indicating unequivocally ADX is reflective of the
current decline.</STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>================================================</STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>"If anything, right now, the indicator is telling us that we can
go sideways, but a turn down in ADX now would mean that the BULLISH cycle is
weakening, not the bearish".</STRONG></P>
<P><STRONG>……Not correct as stated above.</STRONG></P>
<P> </P><STRONG>
<P>" Furthermore, weekly ADX is near 10, saying the big picture still shows
no trend. I'd stand up and take notice when that starts moving higher. I fear
that it could be to the down side".</FONT> </STRONG></P><FONT size=2>
<P><STRONG>……That might well be true directionally on a weekly
basis. As well though, ADX readings near 10 in most market environments reflect
an absence of trend and volatility that is usually going to revert to the mean.
So this is hunting ground for potential trade ideas. </STRONG></P></FONT><FONT
size=2>
<P><STRONG>On a short term basis I throw my hat in the sideways to higher short
term.</STRONG></P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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