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Don't have NHNL data handy right now but here's the rest:
>Do you see any glaring divergences from the DOW, the SPX, the NYA?
Yes:
a/ Decl issues generally falling as NYA/SPX fall while Advn issues rise or
hold stable.
b/ 9/20 to 9/21 Decl issues rose AND Advn issues fell so you would expect
NYA to fall but NYA rose. However, Adv volume rose and Decl Vol fell which
confirmed price.
c/ 9/21 to 9/22 Decl vol rose and Advn volume fell AND Advn Issues fell with
Decl issues rising so you would expect price to fall but NYA rose a few
cents. This was divergent.
>Do you see a stealth bull getting ready to snort?
No.
a/ Volume/Price are just tracking each other after the 1 day divergence.
b/ On 9/22 it took 518 million share increase in Adv volume to move NYA up
by a measly 5 points (not even 1%). On 9/20 it only took a 346 million share
increase in Decl volume to drop the NYA by 8 points (over 1%).
Today's not over yet.
Conclusions?
For the timeframe specified (9/18 to date)
Don't know what to make of the above #s. One day the volume
confirms/diverges, the other day the #issues confirms/diverges. Other days
they all track in the same direction.
Given that it took a lot more firepower to drive prices up (500+ million)
than it took to drive prices down (<400 million), I'd say this is a weak
market.
Given the almost 1.5:1 effect of down volume's effect on price (index fell
1.xx%) over up volume on price (index rose 0.xx%), I'd say again that the
market is weak.
Glass half empty mode.
I don't trade using any of these statistics, so expect me to have zilch
insights but total neutrality.
If you gave me these stats in a blind test again, this is what I'd likely
see.
Gitanshu
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