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GB, you are fast with the statistics, how about doing this little exercise
and report back:
Starting on 9/18 make a daily list for the NYA of new highs and new lows,
advancing issues, declining issues, up volume, down volume. Then compare it
with what you see today. Do you see any glaring divergences from the DOW,
the SPX, the NYA? Do you see a stealth bull getting ready to snort?
BR
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gitanshu Buch" <OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2000 8:57 AM
Subject: [RT] MKT: Big Picture Patterns
> "I see dead people" comes to mind.
>
> Rounded tops in
> - Retail Index
>
> Double tops in
> - Drug Index (formed)
> - Biotech Index (forming)
> - Oil Services Index (forming)
> - Utility Sector Index (forming)
> - Transportation Average (breaking down from )
>
> Failure Breakouts in
> - Bank Index
>
> Flag Breakdown in
> - Semiconductor Index
> - Morgan Stanley High Tech Index (forming)
> - Computer Technology Index
>
> That covers about 80% of the SPX's capitalization. Enough is said about
the
> 80/20 rule for me to not repeat it.
>
> It is often possible to view a CANSLIM cup as a Double Top and go bearish
at
> the exquisite moment when the bias should be bullish.
>
> It is often possible to write off company-specific news as - well -
company
> specific.
>
> Hence, one looks the other way when
> - The Gap first put in a double top.
> - Home Depot then put in a double top.
> - Wal Mart looks like it has put in a double top.
> The Gap then broke its support. Home Depot and Wal Mart are threatening
to.
>
> One looks the other way when
> - Intel put in a mammoth triple top and then convincingly broke down.
> - Microsoft put in a double top.
> - Dell put in a rounded top and is just about ready to break down now.
> - Lucent put in a rounded top and convincingly broke down from support,
much
> like The Gap did or Dell seems ready to.
>
> But topping patterns in a wide swath of the markets? These are the
patterns
> that authors such as Jiler used in their Case Studies for charts going
back
> 60 years. While it is not my place to challenge anybody's skills, I do
wish
> to draw attention to the plethora of failure patterns.
>
> Ah well. We are at the point of recognition where Technical Analysis
> challenges conventional wisdom that Equity markets are lognormally
> distributed because there is an inherent Bullish bias.
>
> Looks decidedly bearish to me.
>
> Am I bearish/bullish? While the above was just reporting on what everybody
> can see, I'm careful being bullish these days. When my list of tradable
> CANSLIM breakouts turns to single digits ACROSS exchanges, it is time to
be
> careful.
>
> Its good to be a stock picker in a churning index market, but it is
> difficult making money on the long side - surprises continue happening on
> the downside these days, great news result into Key Reversal Days, rallies
> continue fading, there is a VERY narrow universe of stocks like EMC, SUNW,
> IDTI in firm uptrends that refuse to Die....and not recognizing that the
> going is getting tougher by the day is living in fool's paradise.
>
> Short term, even a MSFT induced spike can't keep the NAZ in the green. and
> MSFT isn't what it used to be in that index. What it did do is cause the
> whole tech complex to lift and enable the NAZ to print a lower high - only
> to be met by relentless sellers.
>
> Yes, today's low marks a high volume double bottom on MSFT at 60 which
level
> had been resistance back in July 98 and is half of its Dec 99 peak of 120
so
> there must be some sort of Gann or other retracement support at 60.
>
> But then, the charts of The Gap, Wal Mart, Amazon, Intel, all looked like
> double bottoms at prior multi-year resistance levels all set in huge
> volume... many $$ ago.
>
> Sorry, the ANTI says buy the SPX but I just can't find anything to
buy.....
>
> Gitanshu
> PS: All charts for indices / stocks mentioned above were looked at on a
> Weekly log scale to normalize viewing displeasure.
>
>
>
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