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I haven't received my October TASC yet but will take a look. Since the PTI
of 33 on my weekly chart is calling for a double bottom in price worst case
or a failed 5th wave, that would make sense. Again, my point is the overall
pattern in Bonds appears to be bearish on the weekly AGET however the low
PTI is alerting one to the possibility things may flip quickly and like I
said the A-B of the wave 4 up becomes 1-2. The key is to find the moment it
is signaling that change, if in fact it occurs and from what point,
pricewise.
I Don't have the Hirsch book but AGET has seasonals in it for bonds
(1978-1998) or (1989-1998) or 1(994-1998). I checked and they confirm what
you mentioned about being up from early fall (August or September to
December). Attached is a gif of the 1978-1998 seasonal on a daily bond chart
(dark blue line).
Worth watching for sure.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2000 7:27 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: US Bonds weekly
> A couple of things attracted my attention to yields today. One is the
> Martin Pring article on chart patterns in the October TASC on page 34. He
> had an example of a generic H&S pattern with one left shoulder and two
right
> shoulders with the recent shoulder lower than the one between it and the
> head. It looked similar to the current 30 year yield chart. Then in the
> Yale Hirsch 2000 annual on page 84 his study of the 10 year yield shows
> bonds being seasonally strong between August and December.
>
> BobR
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2000 5:02 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: US Bonds weekly
>
>
> > Bob,
> > I am unable to do that but Earl Adamy can.
> >
> > He sent me the attached chart a few days back, perhaps he can update it
> for
> > the group. It charts 30 yr. yields and shows an inverted pattern that I
am
> > looking at in the bonds, similar EW count (except up instead of down, a
> PTI
> > below 34 indicating a double top or failed fifth (again similar to the
> bond
> > chart I posted but up not down since it is on yields). I believe I can
> make
> > out the Head-and Shoulders pattern you are speaking of. If you look at
the
> > TL (trendlines) he drew (described on the chart), pretty interesting
> chart.
> >
> > See if this helps and Earl if you have your ears on can you update it
> (this
> > chart was on 9-15-00)
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2000 6:22 AM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: US Bonds weekly
> >
> >
> > > How about changing the topic from EW to where the H&S interest rate
> > pattern
> > > fails. At what interest rate level would you consider the H&S no
longer
> > an
> > > H&S pattern but one of consolidation with higher yields in the future?
> > > Likewise, if the H&S pattern remains valid, then what is the downsided
> > > projection for yields.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > BobR
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, September 18, 2000 4:31 AM
> > > Subject: [RT] Re: US Bonds weekly
> > >
> > >
> > > > All, please understand, "we" are not arguing view points here (Scot,
> > Steve
> > > > and any others that have expressed "their" view points on bonds and
I
> > > > welcome that), "we" are just trying to figure out what the major
trend
> > is
> > > in
> > > > bonds is here, maybe a bigger picture is unfolding and "let us all"
> get
> > on
> > > > the right side of it.
> > > >
> > > > I was offering up what one of the software packages I utilize was
> > > > "potentially seeing". This is "not" a software admonishment, counts
> can
> > > > change and do sometimes more than I would like, but this is a
> discussion
> > > on
> > > > direction . .. . not software, hopefully understood. I am
interested
> in
> > > > other opinions particularly if they are backup by some substance.
One
> > > > interesting fact is when counts do change (for instance wave 5's
> > changing
> > > > to wave 3's), you are still on the right side of the market for the
> next
> > > > trade and with proper money management still make $$$.
> > > >
> > > > I see bonds hit 97-23 in the night session as I write this, lets
> > continue
> > > > the dialog.
> > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "t-bondtrader" <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, September 17, 2000 3:55 AM
> > > > Subject: [RT] Re: US Bonds weekly
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > While all this may pan out, this is a very poor EW count. EW is
> shaky
> > > > > enough as it, but one must at least use this method correctly.
> Your
> > 2
> > > > > lasts for five weeks and your 4 for 32, hardly the same
magnitude.
> > > > >
> > > > > >From the above statement, Earl Adamy says:
> > > > >
> > > > > "...... The moderators seem to feel that free speech takes
> precedence
> > > over
> > > > > civility."
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Just what was uncivil about that statement? Surely, from Scot's
> > > > analysis,
> > > > > it was a matter of his opinion, which he is entitled to put to the
> > list
> > > > and
> > > > > many on the list will no doubt benefit from what he has said.
After
> > > all,
> > > > > while many do not think that EW has much predictive power, but is
> good
> > > at
> > > > > seeing where the market has been and might go eventually, it does
> > have
> > > a
> > > > > set of rules, doesn't it? EW does have major and minor counts,
> > doesn't
> > > > it?
> > > > > Presumably one has to compare like with like. doesn't one?
> > > > >
> > > > > The comment was, as I see it, on the way the count was being made
> > > against
> > > > > the rules that most EW practitioners would expect the count to be
> > made?
> > > > > Yes? No? Scot was simply pointing out what he thought and as far
> as
> > I
> > > > can
> > > > > make out, did it in a very civil manner. What exactly is your
> beef?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Bill Eykyn
> > > > > t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
>
>
>
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