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As with other indicators used alone the timing with the 5 day summation of
TRIN leaves a bit to be desired. Couple it up with a few things like a
stochastic RSI, a 5 day price momentum and an unsaturating version of trin
from Chande & Kroll and the odds might be a bit better. The yellow line on
the chart is the 5 day summation of the TRIN or Arms index. It is giving an
oversold reading.
BR
-----Original Message-----
From: ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, July 28, 2000 10:24 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Arms Index
>Bo:
>
>The answer to your question is no. The 5 trading figures through April
>13th were:
>109, 88, 86, 95, 153. This gives you a 5 day average of 106. The figure
>for the 14th was
>402. Which makes the 5 day average 165. Every signal was the first
time
> the average
>hit 120 or higher. This study was for 6 months only. A valid study in
>my opinion would
>have to go back 10 or more years. And of course since I posted the
>excellent results
>for this year and made people aware of this short term indicator it was
a
>given that
>this is the time that it probably will NOT work.
>
>As I write this the trading index is 94. No panic which on a short term
>basis is discerning.
>If we could get a signal reading above 160 (5 days) it should lead to an
>important short term bottom in the next 1 or 2 days. I bought on
>Wednesday the day of the signal, sold
>1/2 my mutual funds on Thursday because I did not like the close. I try to
>follow a saying told to me by an old friend, when in doubt get out.
Since
>my doubt was not 100% I cut
>back my exposure. If we do not get what I consider a good close today I
>will be 100%
>in cash at the close. I will lick my wounds and sleep like a baby tonight,
>wake up every hour crying. Unfortunately the market does not always do
what
>I want it to do.
>
>Norman E.
>
>
>Bo Turger wrote:
>>
>> Hi Norman,
>> You Wrote:
>> The criteria for a buy signal is a reading of 120 or higher.
>> Following is a list of the buy signals for this year:
>>
>> DATE 5 DAY ARMS
>>
>> 1-4 128
>> 1-28 121
>> 4-14 165
>> 5-3 126
>> 5-25 121
>> 6-9 125
>> 4-30 122
>> 7-5 125
>>
>> Question: In any of these instances, particularly the 165 reading on
>> 4-14, did several above 120 values occur before the final value you
posted
>> (above)? In other words, do you sometimes see a series of plus 120
values,
>> and then in hindsite choose the value that was the peak?
>> It seems an inevitable occurence, and perhaps yesterday was the beginning
of
>> such a series.
>> Just sharing a thought.
>> Bo.
>> ________________________________________________________________________
>> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com
>
>
>
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