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Bo:
The answer to your question is no. The 5 trading figures through April
13th were:
109, 88, 86, 95, 153. This gives you a 5 day average of 106. The figure
for the 14th was
402. Which makes the 5 day average 165. Every signal was the first time
the average
hit 120 or higher. This study was for 6 months only. A valid study in
my opinion would
have to go back 10 or more years. And of course since I posted the
excellent results
for this year and made people aware of this short term indicator it was a
given that
this is the time that it probably will NOT work.
As I write this the trading index is 94. No panic which on a short term
basis is discerning.
If we could get a signal reading above 160 (5 days) it should lead to an
important short term bottom in the next 1 or 2 days. I bought on
Wednesday the day of the signal, sold
1/2 my mutual funds on Thursday because I did not like the close. I try to
follow a saying told to me by an old friend, when in doubt get out. Since
my doubt was not 100% I cut
back my exposure. If we do not get what I consider a good close today I
will be 100%
in cash at the close. I will lick my wounds and sleep like a baby tonight,
wake up every hour crying. Unfortunately the market does not always do what
I want it to do.
Norman E.
Bo Turger wrote:
>
> Hi Norman,
> You Wrote:
> The criteria for a buy signal is a reading of 120 or higher.
> Following is a list of the buy signals for this year:
>
> DATE 5 DAY ARMS
>
> 1-4 128
> 1-28 121
> 4-14 165
> 5-3 126
> 5-25 121
> 6-9 125
> 4-30 122
> 7-5 125
>
> Question: In any of these instances, particularly the 165 reading on
> 4-14, did several above 120 values occur before the final value you posted
> (above)? In other words, do you sometimes see a series of plus 120 values,
> and then in hindsite choose the value that was the peak?
> It seems an inevitable occurence, and perhaps yesterday was the beginning of
> such a series.
> Just sharing a thought.
> Bo.
> ________________________________________________________________________
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