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I follow anniversary dates. July 18, 1998 was a top and July 19, 1999 was a
top. Is it possible to have a top on the 18,th one year then the 19th the
next and this year a top on the 20th? 18,19,20??
----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, July 16, 2000 8:23 AM
Subject: [RT] S&P500, Looking Ahead
> Hello RT'rs,...
>
> Following is excert from my End of Week Notes,..just
> personal observations and forward looking analysis.
> Would appreciate any thoughts or comments,...and have
> a good week. Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
> ****************************************
> End of Week Notes Fri 07-14-00
>
> RISK IS HIGH,OPEN MINDED TO WAVE "B" HIGH 07-20, WAVE "C" LOW 09-19.
>
> SYMMETRY: For S&P500, from 03-24 high to 05-23 low was 42 mkt days. From
> 05-23 low, project forward 42 mkt days is 07-20 as Bear Mkt Rally "B Wave"
> High. Significantly, 07-20 is Bradley (both M & 5) Models Key Date,
> indicated as a HIGH. From high 07-20,...another 42 mkt days targets 09-19
> LOW. And this is noteworthy as Thurs 09-21 is Parallax Long Term Weekly
> Turn #4 of 6 for year 2000. So open minded to a "C" Wave decline into
> 09-21. In my humble opinion,..near term risk is high.
>
> NEAR TERM QUESTIONABLE: Although no outright "Sells" yet,..several
favorite
> key indicators are close. Weekly CBOE Put/Call ratio 0.38 at "Sell Alert"
> (0.34 to 0.36 is outright Sell). TGI at 6.7 is overbought with weak Avg
Vol
> Factor 4.1 (below 5.0 is worrisome). And summer rally typical from
seasonal
> April - May low into July - Aug high,...again suggesting we are NOT at
the
> beginning of a major up leg.
>
> NASDAQ NEAR .618 RETRACEMENT RESISTANCE. First resistance 3900-4000 (was
> area of greatest QQQ option open interest) now overcome, so next
resistance
> target is 0.618 retracement of the 03-10 to 05-24 decline is approximately
> 4300 -4400 level,..just above current 4244 close. Another factor
suggesting
> limited upside
> from current levels.
>
> CURRENTLY our portfolio is 70% long International Growth (30% cash), and I
> will likely exit to 100% cash on Mon 07-17. Friendly to pursuit of
overseas
> follow through BUT only when setup is "compelling".
>
>
>
>
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