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Hello RT'rs,...
Following is excert from my End of Week Notes,..just
personal observations and forward looking analysis.
Would appreciate any thoughts or comments,...and have
a good week. Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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End of Week Notes Fri 07-14-00
RISK IS HIGH,OPEN MINDED TO WAVE "B" HIGH 07-20, WAVE "C" LOW 09-19.
SYMMETRY: For S&P500, from 03-24 high to 05-23 low was 42 mkt days. From
05-23 low, project forward 42 mkt days is 07-20 as Bear Mkt Rally "B Wave"
High. Significantly, 07-20 is Bradley (both M & 5) Models Key Date,
indicated as a HIGH. From high 07-20,...another 42 mkt days targets 09-19
LOW. And this is noteworthy as Thurs 09-21 is Parallax Long Term Weekly
Turn #4 of 6 for year 2000. So open minded to a "C" Wave decline into
09-21. In my humble opinion,..near term risk is high.
NEAR TERM QUESTIONABLE: Although no outright "Sells" yet,..several favorite
key indicators are close. Weekly CBOE Put/Call ratio 0.38 at "Sell Alert"
(0.34 to 0.36 is outright Sell). TGI at 6.7 is overbought with weak Avg Vol
Factor 4.1 (below 5.0 is worrisome). And summer rally typical from seasonal
April - May low into July - Aug high,...again suggesting we are NOT at the
beginning of a major up leg.
NASDAQ NEAR .618 RETRACEMENT RESISTANCE. First resistance 3900-4000 (was
area of greatest QQQ option open interest) now overcome, so next resistance
target is 0.618 retracement of the 03-10 to 05-24 decline is approximately
4300 -4400 level,..just above current 4244 close. Another factor suggesting
limited upside
from current levels.
CURRENTLY our portfolio is 70% long International Growth (30% cash), and I
will likely exit to 100% cash on Mon 07-17. Friendly to pursuit of overseas
follow through BUT only when setup is "compelling".
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