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<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000>Another method initially highlighted by Jeff Cooper for
stocks agrees with this thesis:</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>The
method is called Turtle Soup Expansion, and adds to the Street Smarts Turtle
Soup strategy.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>Rules
(sell side):</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>1.
Today = 20 day high (in this case the 7/13 high)</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>2.
Previous 20 day high = 4 or more trading days before today (ie 4 days before
7/13, which condition came true since the prior 20 day high was
7/5)</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>3. If
Today (7/13) / Tomorrow (7/14) reverses by </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>a.
closing below the prior 20 day high (the 7/5 high) and</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>b.
having the widest range of the prior 4 trading days</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000>Then</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>Short
1 tick below yesterday's (7/12) low.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>In any
case the 7/14 bar also had a wide range outside bar
reversal.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>Nearby
support is the 20 ema, but the funds would be watching the rising 50 & 200
ema and adding to longs on pullbacks to any of the 3 ma's...</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=990384811-17072000>Gitanshu</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=990384811-17072000>No
position</SPAN></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML></x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jul 17 07:01:05 2000
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From: "Gitanshu Buch" <OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] STK: Bonds, RLX, BKX patterns
Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2000 08:08:35 -0400
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<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000>B<SPAN class=480000412-17072000>y the way - the Turtle
Soup Expansion sell we saw on Bonds on 7/14 is the exact pattern match for BOND
price action on 4/11, and </SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN class=480000412-17072000>- retailers HD, WMT
peaked on 4/12 with the same pattern.</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN class=480000412-17072000>- money center banks (C,
BK, JPM etc) printed lower highs on 4/12 after the bonds printed higher highs on
4/11.</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN class=480000412-17072000>All around the peak in
the non-Dow averages.</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN class=480000412-17072000>Cross-market stuff to
watch.</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000><SPAN
class=480000412-17072000>Gitanshu</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML></x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jul 17 07:01:10 2000
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From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <00df01bfefe2$0a27efa0$9b63ff3e@xxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Bonds are going down...
Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2000 06:16:39 -0600
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<DIV>I think we have several items at work here: intermediate trend (weekly
chart) is up with AGet indicating probable w.5 decline lies just ahead (a trend
reversal), short term trend (daily chart) is up however the outside bearish
reversal & spring reversal is a clear danger sign that the trend is in
trouble, minor trend (30 minutes or less) is down. The wave count on the 5-10
minute is not yet totally clear, however it certainly appears to be
impulsive which would suggest that we will see a 5 wave decline evolve on the
hourly (or higher) charts. Even if corrective, we should see a 3 wave ABC
pattern on the intraday charts. We've had enough of a decline to set the wheels
in motion and it's now time for the bulls to attempt a rally. If this
correction/decline is going to have some legs, that rally should fail in range
of 98-05 to 98-10 which are the %-50%-62% retracements giving us a pretty
clear shot at entering the beginning of a w.3 decline. If the rally pulls back
to 98-17 or higher, we are more likely to see an ABC correction. Bottom line for
now, and always subject to revision as the market dictates, I will be a buyer
here and a seller at 98-05 or higher.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Re the S&P, I note that the SP had rallied for 5 days before the bonds
broke out to the upside so I would suspect that something else might have been
at work here in turning things around Friday. One never knows, but my suspicion
is that the indication of strong and pervasive price increases ahead
contained in the NABE story I posted Friday morning could have unnerved the bond
market inflation hawks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>T-Bondtrader</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 17, 2000 5:27 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Bonds are going
down...</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Am really on hols, but when I saw this chart on
my screen, I just had to post it and buy a bunch of puts...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I normally mis-trust angled wedges, because
you're never sure which way they are likely to break. I much prefer the
flat bottomed or flat topped variety, which, on the bonds, are usually very
reliable.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In this case the S&P is the clue. The
break to the north should have made the bonds break to the south, if the
instruments are continuing to run in opposite direction. However,
if you look at the volume of the break out, north, once done it seemed to
disappear and the continuation the following day, did the same thing - only it
then spend the rest of the day retracing its steps...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So now we start Monday, with the Spoo still very
much in the ascendant and the Boos having made what looks like a false
breakout north and a solid two-bar reversal. The only conclusion I
have is that lower price are now in order and, to keep my hand in the market
while the remainder of me is still in holiday mode, I shall buy some puts on
the open and see what happens...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think that summer is finally arriving here, so
I am off to be out in it</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jul 17 07:01:14 2000
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Reply-To: <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: "Steven W. Poser" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] RE: Re: Bonds are going down...
Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2000 08:42:57 -0400
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<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=060382912-17072000>This
is more in relation to Bill's comment rather than Earl's.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=060382912-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=060382912-17072000>I do
not think that you will find, if you look carefully of late, that bonds and
stocks have been moving against each other. Right now, the focus is on inflation
and the Fed. What is seen as good for equities (Fed on hold due to moderating
economy and low inflation) is also good for bonds. So, most catalysts have
helped both bonds and stocks do better lately.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=060382912-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=060382912-17072000>The
reason for the reversal on Friday in bonds is less clear except that the boys in
the bond pits usually have their heads on straight and figure it all out before
the stock guys do. PPI was good, no question, but retail sales were not. Strong
economy is not good for bonds. Stocks, which I think are nervous about weaker
economy, liked low inflation plus okay economy combo of PPI and retail sales.
Bonds did not (especially since if the economy does not weaken, they figure Fed
will keep raising rates). Add to that a strong consumer confidence report at
10AM Friday, and you have another reason for bonds to be soft. I am not so sure
that the NABE report was the reason, but that did not help (it was already known
on Friday morning if I remember correctly, though sometimes these things take
time to work their way through).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=060382912-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=060382912-17072000>I
still see stocks and bonds mostly moving in tandem until one or the other has a
major break. I have day counts pointing to a top in equities in the next couple
of sessions. I continue to expect at best, the low-1300s and more likely into
the 1200s on the S&P 500 cash with NASDAQ falling to 2800/2566 by late Q3 or
early Q4. That will sure help bonds. However, the stock market might grind
lower, not crash. Only time will tell.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=060382912-17072000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=060382912-17072000>Steve
Poser</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<P><FONT size=2>---<BR>Steven W. Poser, President<BR>Poser Global Market
Strategies Inc.<BR><A href="http://www.poserglobal.com/";
target=_blank>http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR>Tel:
201-995-0845<BR>Fax: 201-995-0846</FONT> </P>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Earl
Adamy<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 17, 2000 8:17 AM<BR><B>To:</B>
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Re: Bonds are going
down...<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV>I think we have several items at work here: intermediate trend (weekly
chart) is up with AGet indicating probable w.5 decline lies just ahead (a
trend reversal), short term trend (daily chart) is up however the outside
bearish reversal & spring reversal is a clear danger sign that the trend
is in trouble, minor trend (30 minutes or less) is down. The wave count on the
5-10 minute is not yet totally clear, however it certainly appears to be
impulsive which would suggest that we will see a 5 wave decline evolve on the
hourly (or higher) charts. Even if corrective, we should see a 3 wave ABC
pattern on the intraday charts. We've had enough of a decline to set the
wheels in motion and it's now time for the bulls to attempt a rally. If this
correction/decline is going to have some legs, that rally should fail in range
of 98-05 to 98-10 which are the %-50%-62% retracements giving us a pretty
clear shot at entering the beginning of a w.3 decline. If the rally pulls back
to 98-17 or higher, we are more likely to see an ABC correction. Bottom line
for now, and always subject to revision as the market dictates, I will be a
buyer here and a seller at 98-05 or higher.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Re the S&P, I note that the SP had rallied for 5 days before the
bonds broke out to the upside so I would suspect that something else might
have been at work here in turning things around Friday. One never knows, but
my suspicion is that the indication of strong and pervasive price
increases ahead contained in the NABE story I posted Friday morning could have
unnerved the bond market inflation hawks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>T-Bondtrader</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 17, 2000 5:27
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Bonds are going
down...</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Am really on hols, but when I saw this chart on
my screen, I just had to post it and buy a bunch of puts...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I normally mis-trust angled wedges, because
you're never sure which way they are likely to break. I much prefer
the flat bottomed or flat topped variety, which, on the bonds, are usually
very reliable.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In this case the S&P is the clue. The
break to the north should have made the bonds break to the south, if the
instruments are continuing to run in opposite direction.
However, if you look at the volume of the break out, north, once done it
seemed to disappear and the continuation the following day, did the same
thing - only it then spend the rest of the day retracing its
steps...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So now we start Monday, with the Spoo still
very much in the ascendant and the Boos having made what looks like a false
breakout north and a solid two-bar reversal. The only conclusion
I have is that lower price are now in order and, to keep my hand in the
market while the remainder of me is still in holiday mode, I shall buy some
puts on the open and see what happens...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think that summer is finally arriving here,
so I am off to be out in it</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jul 17 07:01:26 2000
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Subject: [RT] Re: Bonds are going down...
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In a message dated 7/17/00 5:19:31 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< Bottom line for now, and always subject to revision as the market
dictates, I will be a buyer here and a seller at 98-05 or higher.
>>
Good Morning Earl and others on RT forum,...
For intermediate term turns in bonds,..the ratio of assets in the Rydex Juno
fund (bond bear market bet) to assets in the Rydex Bond fund have had a
decent record. As with many indicators,..best at identifying bond market
lows (i.e. peaks in interest rates). Here is a link for a chart from
decisionpoint.com:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentRydexBondRatio.html
Currently this ratio is near the low end,.at 0.19,..implying complacency at
best,..more like "overbelief",...in the upside for bonds (i.e. most players
at Rydex are expecting lower rates). The risk in using the Juno and Bond
funds (end of day pricing as with most mutual funds) as trading vehicles is
that Bonds can benefit from flight to safety if the stock market gets
hit,...etc. So,...bottomline,..the ratio of assets in Juno/Bond funds is an
indicator worth tracking,...another tool in the box for sentiment on bonds.
Just my humble opinion. Hope your day is a good one.
Regards, JIM Pilliod
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