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The 78.6 retracement is also the focus of a very large cup and handle
pattern on the daily from 11Apr, another cup and handle on the hourly from
20Jun, and yet another cup and handle on the 10 minute from 05Jul.
Unfortunately, the retracements keep breaking the 38% fib and the pattern
can't sustain enough momentum to manage a breakout (analagous to trying to
build a house on a weak foundation). Once again today, the rally from
Thursday's low to Friday's high was retraced by nearly 50% going into the
close. AGet EOD suggests that the rally from the Jan low is not going to new
highs without another major retracement but the jury is still out until we
get a clear failure. I do think a breakout here to upside will have major
legs. In the meantime, I will continue to use the intraday charts for
trading and trust that they will have me on board for the major move when it
comes.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: SCOTT WINSKI, APS FINANCIAL CORPOR <WINSKI@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 07, 2000 1:20 PM
Subject: [RT] TBONDS
> FOR THE SIXTH TIME SINCE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WE HAVE TESTED AND RESTED ON
> 76% RETRACEMENT FROM THE MOVE DOWN FROM APRIL 7TH TO MAY 5TH (99.2-92.65).
NOW
> TRADING 97-21....A BREAK ABOVE THIS RETRACEMENT USUALLY MEANS THAT WE WILL
TRACE
> 100% OF THAT MOVE. IT SURE HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO BREAK THRU THIS LEVEL.
> ANY THOUGHTS?
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