|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2919.6307" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I don't know if you call it smart money or not, but
the funds that have an agenda (i.e. they want to own the stock they didn't
buy earlier in the day) and will buy in the early after-hours market,
if need be. This can cause the herd mentality of retail
traders to want to join the circus the next day on the open. I believe
this is what causes most stock gaps (when it's not news related).
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If the specialist or market maker has piles of 100
share orders in the morning to buy the stock on the open, he'll raise the price
to open. If the smart money bought the day before, they'll sell to the
"last to buy" retail traders who often get caught holding the bag. Then
when the last of the retail sells off, the day traders will scoop up the bargain
shares. Somewhere at the beginning of this buying is the low risk, high
reward trade setup.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's just my guess at it and would appreciate any
feedback.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Don R</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Sean Cassidy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, July 07, 2000 2:06 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Gaps</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Need some help with a theory. Does a lot of the
smart money now come in at night or during after hours trading, do you think?
That seems logical because there is still a lot of money out there that does
not choose to use these market ECNs, but I would think it is mostly retail.
Therefore should a stock that gaps up do so because it was pushed up by
"educated" traders. I have a gap play that works most of the time. It seems
like stocks that gap up sell off and then continue to go up, except CMGI which
I owned but should probably not have, is it still too early to be this bullish
on the net?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Sean</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Jul 07 15:03:43 2000
Return-Path: <listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from mail.pajo.com (mail.pajo.com [216.116.96.4])
by purebytes.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id PAA02820
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Fri, 7 Jul 2000 15:03:03 -0700
Received: from REALTRADERS.COM ([208.179.56.198])
by mail.pajo.com (8.9.1a/8.9.0) with ESMTP id PAA02484;
Fri, 7 Jul 2000 15:12:19 -0700
Received: from mta4.rcsntx.swbell.net by realtraders.com
with SMTP (MDaemon.v3.0.3.R)
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Fri, 07 Jul 2000 15:00:11 -0700
Received: from Lee300dsl ([208.191.176.37]) by mta4.rcsntx.swbell.net
(Sun Internet Mail Server sims.3.5.2000.01.05.12.18.p9)
with SMTP id <0FXC0089CL42IW@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> for
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Fri, 7 Jul 2000 17:00:06 -0500 (CDT)
Date: Fri, 07 Jul 2000 16:59:37 -0500
From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Gen: Pareto Levy
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Reply-to: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
Message-id: <000f01bfe85e$a53d6fa0$25b0bfd0@xxxxxxxxxx>
Organization: SYTECH Corporation
MIME-version: 1.0
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4029.2901
Content-type: multipart/mixed;
boundary="----=_NextPart_000_000B_01BFE834.BBD7F8E0"
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.50.4029.2901
References: <20000707.164922.-3696179.0.rmac@xxxxxxxx>
X-Priority: 3
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Return-Path: clydelee@xxxxxxx
X-MDRcpt-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
X-MDMailing-List: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDSend-Notifications-To: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Status:
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4030.2400" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>This
is a followup on Ron's post about distributions.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>The following indicator was written
for TS2000i --</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>would not be hard to modify to run in TS4
but I quit</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>All I did was sort the log of the ratio of
the day</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>to day prices for a selected period (the
attached .gif</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>shows OEX with 30 day distributions) and
plotted the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>values at 4 selected (quadril???) points of
the array.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Not as effective as Ron's work but probably
helpful</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>on a continuing time basis.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Clyde</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>{Indicator: Plot Quadril
Values}<BR>{<BR> Simple method of watching distribution of close to
close<BR> prices for any symbol desired.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> Author: Clyde Lee</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>}</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Input:
Price(c),<BR>
Length(60); {Length of time period for analysis}</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Vars:
Index1(round(length/8,0)),<BR>
Index2(round(Index1+length/4,0)),<BR>
Index3(round(Index2+length/4,0)),<BR>
Index4(round(Index3+length/4,0));</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>
<DIV><BR>Arrays: DeltaP[200](0);</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><BR>If Length<201 then begin<BR> For Value1=0 to Length-1
begin<BR>
DeltaP[Value1]=Log(Price[Value1]/Price[Value1+1]);<BR> End;<BR> Value2=SortUp_a(DeltaP,Length);</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> Plot1(T3Average(DeltaP[Index1],5),"q1");<BR> Plot2(T3Average(DeltaP[Index2],5),"q2");<BR> Plot3(T3Average(DeltaP[Index3],5),"q3");<BR> Plot4(T3Average(DeltaP[Index4],5),"q4");</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>End;</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -<BR>Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)<BR>SYTECH
Corporation
email: <</FONT><A href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxx";><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>clydelee@xxxxxxx</FONT></A><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>> <BR>7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Work: (713) 783-9540<BR>Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092 <BR>- - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -<BR>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -<BR>To subscribe / unsubscribe from SwingMachine
list<BR></FONT><A href="http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/";><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/</FONT></A></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>After joining list the freeware
SwingMachine program <BR>(DOS Version) is available in the VAULT
at:<BR></FONT><A href="http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/";><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/</FONT></A><BR><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - -<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>----- Original Message ----- </FONT>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>From: "Ronald McEwan" <</FONT><A
href="mailto:rmac@xxxxxxxx";><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>rmac@xxxxxxxx</FONT></A><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>To: <</FONT><A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</FONT></A><FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Sent: Friday, July 07, 2000
15:49</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Subject: [RT] Gen: Pareto
Levy</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Courier New"><BR><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT></DIV><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>> Edgar Peters (Chaos and Order in the Capital
Markets) has an interesting<BR>> way of displaying the difference in the
distribution of a securities<BR>> returns and a normal distribution of
returns. You simply subtract the two<BR>> numbers. The resulting plot reveals
much about the trading dynamics of<BR>> the security. In Peter's original
studies large data sets were used (some<BR>> in excess of 20 years). I had
wanted to see if this could be used for a<BR>> shorter time frame. In my
study I used 60 days of daily OEX changes. I<BR>> think even at 60 days
this information is valuable. The attached plot<BR>> shows the excess (of a
normal distribution) in the negative 3 to 4<BR>> standard deviations and the
positive 2 to 3 standard deviations. This is<BR>> the so called "Fat Tail"
range for the OEX. Greater then expected moves<BR>> in the daily
changes of the OEX are found more often then a normal<BR>> distribution would
imply. Also the excess negative moves in the minus 0 -<BR>> 1 standard
deviations show the tendency for the OEX to make short term<BR>> moves to the
downside greater then would be anticipated. This information<BR>> would be
very useful when starting to trade something new or unfamiliar.<BR>> It will
give a quick overview of the tendencies for the way something<BR>> trades on
a daily basis.<BR>> ie more quick moves to the downside then the upside,
ect.<BR>> <BR>> Ron McEwan</FONT></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\junk129.gif"
|