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CRAWFORD PERSPECTIVES
BEST SIGNAL GENERATED IN MANY MONTHS!!!
June 16, 2000
CONSULTING CLIENTS
MARKET IS FAST APPROACHING AN IMPORTANT BUY!!
RALLY COULD BE EXPLOSIVE, AND QUICKLY OVER MID-JULY.
Last note (June 1) we wrote: “They will either break them today or
Tuesday, … or, they will hold on the support, from which a bounce which
could carry back to recent range highs.”
“The strongest single technical number has been TRIN/ARMS over 1.00 for 5
out of 6 days May 19-26.”
TRIN/ARMS now over 1.00 13 out of last 19 days = This has got to be near a
record!!! 5-Day reached 126.4 & 10-Day to 115.5.
The 21-Day ARMS is back up into Strong Intermediate BUY area
S&P500 June Future was down 7 out of 8 days May 17-26. It
is now down 6 out of the last 9 days.
NYSE Advance-Decline Line was down 7 days in a row May 17-25. It has now
been UP 10 of the last 14 = strong!
NYSE Advance-Decline Line is in a flat to mildly positive trend for the
longest period in months (others failed after a short time).
NYSE New Highs-New Lows have gone to highest Positive levels since July’99.
Many of our technical indicators have formed a series of “Rising Bottoms”
or “Higher Lows”!
Almost ALL of them, as a matter of fact! This is highly unusual.
Even if we get one more sharp decline, we will consider it a “BUY SPIKE” to
add to positions.
There is a good chance we won’t see ANY further downside.
THIS IS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL (LEAST DIVERGENT-UP OR DOWN) WE HAVE SEEN IN
MANY MONTHS!!!
That signifies that Strength in the move is Increasing, at least the Sell
Side is Decreasing.
The large TRIANGLE Pattern in Price Indices has continued through time by
expanding the width of its sides, breaking Up AND Down, but without
confirmatory increases in Volume and Momentum.
The Dow Jones DJIA is acting significantly worse than the other Majors,
usually a sign of greater strength forming underneath.
It is the only one remaining below its 200-Day Moving Average.
Again from last Cons. Letter:
“Conclusion:
We believe the market will dip back down into …. a short-term low!
Afterwards, Indices will make another attempt on New Highs, at least
scraping against Range Ceilings.
We think June will be a good UP MONTH!
FOMC on June 28 and VIOLENT SOLAR ECLIPSE on July 1 will confirm or reverse
recent trends!”
Arch Crawford
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